{"id":873,"date":"2024-09-22T02:31:30","date_gmt":"2024-09-21T18:31:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=873"},"modified":"2024-09-22T02:31:30","modified_gmt":"2024-09-21T18:31:30","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e8%80%85%e9%9d%a2%e5%af%b9%e6%b2%a1%e6%9c%89%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%a2%9e%e9%95%bf%e5%9b%a0%e7%b4%a0%e7%9a%84%e6%96%b0%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=873","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9762\u5bf9\u6ca1\u6709\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u65b0\u4e16\u754c"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>Oil Traders Confront a New World Without China Bull Factor<\/a><\/font>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-12<\/p>\n

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For the first time in two decades, China no longer looks like the engine driving global crude demand, which is uncharted waters for many of the traders and executives that gathered for the APPEC oil conference in Singapore this week.China\u2019s is dire, with its property market in the doldrums and consumer confidence weak as it struggles to recover from a pandemic-induced slowdown. Add to that structural changes from an aging population, the energy transition and a growth model that leans less heavily on big-ticket infrastructure, and it\u2019s bad news for oil.For crude merchants and analysts, that means a big adjustment.\u201cI\u2019ve had the discussion internally with my traders. I asked them one question \u2014 how long have you been trading? They\u2019ll say 10 years,\u201d said , the chief executive officer of Hengli Petrochemical International Pte., a trading arm of one of China\u2019s largest private refiners. \u201cMy reply is, you haven\u2019t really traded a world where China is not a bullish factor.\u201dChina\u2019s evolution into the world\u2019s biggest oil importer has supported crude prices for decades and provided business opportunities for merchants from Shanghai to Dubai and London. A tolerance for low-digit GDP growth \u2014 perhaps even missing this year\u2019s 5% target \u2014 makes that difficult to sustain.An informal Bloomberg survey of ten analysts and traders on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference found that oil consumption in China is expected to grow by no more than 300,000 barrels a day in 2025. That\u2019s in-line with the latest projection from , which cut its expectations this week, and lower than estimates by the. The poll showed that a 200,000 barrel-a-day expansion is expected for this year.Respondents, who asked for anonymity as their views are not public, cited higher penetration of electric vehicles, the steady uptake of liquefied natural gas-powered trucks and government restrictions on crude imports and fuel exports. There\u2019s also little spare storage capacity for Beijing to expand its strategic oil reserves.Global oil demand growth is \u201c\u201d as China\u2019s economy cools, according to a monthly report from the IEA. Chinese demand contracted in July for a fourth straight month, and fuel use elsewhere is \u201ctepid at best.\u201d\u201cFrom a structural perspective, China now looks unlikely to be the behemoth for oil demand and perhaps even for other commodities that it once was,\u201d Energy Aspects Ltd. analysts including and Livia Gallarati said in a note earlier this week, \u201cWe remain confident that the government will not allow economic growth to collapse, but growth will no doubt be lackluster for the foreseeable future.\u201dOther APPEC attendees, including Hengli\u2019s Kong, cited the changing nature of oil demand. Chemical feedstocks to produce products such as fibers account for one-third of the nation\u2019s total consumption \u2014 at about 5 million barrels a day \u2014 and that proportion may grow as road transport goes green. But those goods have a far longer \u201chalf life\u201d than fuels, Kong said, which translates to less crude being refined over time.China\u2019s challenging outlook clouded the annual event in Singapore, which is Asia\u2019s largest oil conference. With near $71 and the world\u2019s second-largest economy showing few signs of an imminent revival, traders and refiners are bracing for lower profits.Still, refining capacity in China continues to increase. Expansions at China Petrochemical Corp.\u2019s Zhenhai and Cnooc Ltd.\u2019s Daxie refineries, and a brand new greenfield facility by Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Co. will add a combined 740,000 barrels a day of capacity.However, the world\u2019s No. 2 oil consumer will have to live with processing rates under 70%, traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said. Not everyone is calling a for Chinese fossil fuel consumption \u2014 or writing off the potential for Beijing to boost growth. Trafigura Group Chief Economist said China was still adding 8 million to 9 million new combustion engine vehicles a year.\u201cTo me, if you\u2019re adding new vehicles, it doesn\u2019t feel like peak,\u201d he said.Others agree there is still room for growth, even in a less commodity intensive environment.\u201cIf the Chinese economy improves, we\u2019ll see more discretionary driving,\u201d said Sri Paravaikkarasu, director of market analysis at Phillips 66 International Trading. \u201cBut we should all embrace a slower demand growth from China in the coming years.\u201d in Beijing are testing new ways to boost the economy by encouraging demand, breaking with long-established practice as threats to the country\u2019s growth target mount. advised its carmakers to make sure advanced electric vehicle technology stays in the country, people familiar with the matter said, even as they build factories around the world to escape punitive tariffs on Chinese exports. is forecast to hit the east coast of China early Monday, threatening to bring excessive rainfall that could disrupt oil refineries and LNG import terminals and paralyze transport. Shanghai may be bottoming out as Chinese smelters cut output to shore up margins.(All times Beijing unless noted.)Thursday, Sept. 12:Friday, Sept. 13:Saturday, Sept. 14<\/p>\n

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