{"id":837,"date":"2024-09-22T02:23:09","date_gmt":"2024-09-21T18:23:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=837"},"modified":"2024-09-22T02:23:09","modified_gmt":"2024-09-21T18:23:09","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e6%9c%80%e6%96%b0%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e5%90%8d%e4%b9%89%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e6%9b%b4%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=837","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u6700\u65b0\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u540d\u4e49\u6570\u636e\u66f4\u91cd\u8981"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China Deflation Latest: Why Nominal Is the Real Gauge to Watch<\/a><\/font>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-10<\/p>\n

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“\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u66f4\u5173\u6ce8\u5b9e\u9645\u589e\u957f\u800c\u975e\u540d\u4e49\u589e\u957f”\uff0cCiti Group\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5b63\u6653\u5b87\u548c\u4e8e\u5411\u8363\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u901a\u7f29\u5bf9\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

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I\u2019m , an economics editor in Boston, and today we\u2019re looking at China\u2019s deflation risks. Send us feedback and tips to or get in touch on X via . And if you aren\u2019t yet signed up to receive this newsletter, you can do so .In looking at a nation\u2019s economic output, most of the time it makes sense to remove the impact of changes in prices. But things are different when a country .In that case, \u201creal\u201d gross domestic product is actually inflated by the decline in prices. That\u2019s when nominal GDP can provide a clearer read on conditions \u2014 just as was the case during Japan\u2019s so-called lost decades.Households knew their income was down and spent less. Companies saw their revenues drop and cut investment and hiring. The government\u2019s debt burden rose as tax income stagnated. It was a to break.Today, it\u2019s China that\u2019s . Core inflation is running at the slowest pace in more than three years and factory-gate prices remain stuck in deflation, as they\u2019ve been since late 2022. The broadest measure of prices, the GDP deflator, has fallen for five quarters and that stretch will probably extend into 2025, says Bloomberg Economics.That means risks missing key signals. Real growth was 4.7% last quarter, arguably still in line with the government\u2019s \u201cabout 5%\u201d target for the full year. But nominal GDP rose just 3.97% year-on-year.\u201cWith policymakers\u2019 focus on real growth instead of nominal growth,\u201d they haven\u2019t been prodded into action yet, Citigroup economists Xinyu Ji and Xiangrong Yu wrote in a recent note. But deflation\u2019s \u201cimpact on confidence is without question.\u201dSuch weakness is spurring calls by economists for additional monetary easing. But as Michael Pettis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues, that might not break the deflationary cycle in today\u2019s China just as it didn\u2019t through Japan\u2019s lost decades. In contrast with Western economies such as the US, where monetary easing spurs consumption and thereby inflation, easy money in China tends to flow via banks to the supply side of the economy, boosting output and lowering prices, he argued in a recent article. And it could be worse. \u201cIronically, perhaps the reason China doesn\u2019t experience more deflation is that the economy is already so overinvested that the positive supply side impact of credit expansion has lost much of its force.\u201dThe domestic demand deficit could be seen in Tuesday\u2019s , with imports barely expanding while exports handily beat economists\u2019 estimates in August. While the continued expansion of exports is positive for the economy, Chinese companies are having to cut prices to secure sales, with the volume of shipments rising faster than the value in recent months. Before the pandemic, the US economy needed to add about 75,000 jobs per month to prevent unemployment ticking higher. The immigration surge and a seasonable uptick in the participation rate saw that number surge to as high as 300,000 to 400,000 per month in 2022-2023, according to new analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs.With those trends now moderating, Goldman estimates the \u201cmonthly breakeven rate\u201d for employment will be 150,000 to 180,000 over the next 12 months, economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note. There\u2019s considerable uncertainty around that breakeven rate, making signals from payrolls less useful. That\u2019ll lead the Federal Reserve to put more weight on the unemployment rate going forward, they wrote. Enjoy Economics Daily? Plus, here are some newsletters we think you might like<\/p>\n

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