{"id":2953,"date":"2024-10-06T22:25:56","date_gmt":"2024-10-06T14:25:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2953"},"modified":"2024-10-06T22:25:56","modified_gmt":"2024-10-06T14:25:56","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e5%b1%a1%e5%88%9b%e6%96%b0%e9%ab%98%e4%b9%8b%e9%99%85%ef%bc%8c%e8%b4%a8%e7%96%91%e5%a3%b0%e6%b8%90%e8%b5%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2953","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u5c61\u521b\u65b0\u9ad8\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u8d28\u7591\u58f0\u6e10\u8d77"},"content":{"rendered":"

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JPMorgan Asset Management\u540c\u6837\u6301\u6709\u8c28\u614e\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u591a\u653f\u7b56\u4e3e\u63aa\u4ee5\u63d0\u632f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e9a\u592a\u5730\u533a\u9996\u5e2d\u5e02\u573a\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u76ee\u524d\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u52a9\u51cf\u8f7b\u53bb\u6760\u6746\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u8d44\u4ea7\u4fee\u590d\u8fd8\u9700\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8eHSBC Global Private Banking\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u6539\u53d8\u5176\u957f\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u3002\u201c\u4e3a\u7ef4\u6301\u590d\u82cf\u52a8\u529b\u5e76\u4fc3\u8fdb\u589e\u957f\u81f3\u5b9e\u73b02024\u5e745%\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u5bbd\u677e\u3002\u201d\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u603b\u76d1\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5728\u6700\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e0b\uff0cNomura Holdings Inc.\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5f39\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6ce1\u6cab\u5f0f\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5b58\u5728\u8fc5\u901f\u7834\u88c2\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8be5\u94f6\u884c\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e2d\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u72c2\u70ed\u4e4b\u540e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5d29\u6e83\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e2015\u5e74\u6240\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\u6bd4\u66f4\u52a0\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China Stock Skepticism Gets Louder as World-Beating Run Extends<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-10-06
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

The  in Chinese stocks is failing to convince many global fund managers and strategists.Invesco Ltd., JPMorgan Asset Management, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth, and Nomura Holdings Inc. are among those viewing the recent rebound with skepticism and waiting for Beijing to back up its stimulus pledges with real money. Some are also concerned many stocks are already reaching overvalued levels.Chinese shares have skyrocketed since  as a barrage of economic, financial and market-support measures reinvigorated investor confidence. The Hang Seng China Enterprises , which comprises Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, has jumped more than 30% over the past month, making it the best performer among more than 90 global equity gauges tracked by Bloomberg.\u201cIn the short term, sentiment could overshoot but people will go back to fundamentals,\u201d said , Invesco\u2019s chief investment officer for Hong Kong and Mainland China. \u201cBecause of this rally, some stocks have become really overvalued\u201d and they lack a clear value proposition based on their likely earnings performance, he said.Read more: Stimulus announced by Beijing has included interest-rate cuts, freeing-up of cash at banks, billions of dollars of liquidity support for stocks, and a vow to end the long-term slide in property prices. While there\u2019s plenty of optimism that could underpin a sustainable equity rally, there have been a number of  before, most recently a rally in February that completely unwound.The surge in the past  has seen Chinese equities reassert their influence over broader emerging-market gauges, and dented the performance of fund managers who had been running underweight positions in the biggest developing-nation economy. The durability of the rebound will not only matter for the year-end performance of index-tracking funds, but also have direct implications for nations that have trading and investment links with China.Ma at Invesco, who was one of relatively few  coming into this year, said he\u2019s in no rush to add to his investments now.\u201cThere are a group of stocks whose share prices are up by 30% to 40% and almost at historical highs,\u201d he said. \u201cWhether in the next 12 months the fundamentals will be as good as before their peak, that\u2019s more uncertain to me. That would be the category we would like to trim.\u201dRead more: JPMorgan Asset Management is just as cautious.\u201cAdditional policy steps would be needed to boost economic activity and confidence,\u201d said , Asia Pacific chief market strategist in Hong Kong. \u201cThe policies announced so far can help to smoothen out the de-leveraging process, but the balance-sheet repairing would still need to take place.\u201dHui also pointed to global uncertainties that may crimp the nascent stock rally.\u201cWith the U.S. elections only a month away, many investors would argue that the U.S. view of China as an economic and geopolitical rival is a bipartisan consensus,\u201d he said. Moreover, \u201cforeign investors may choose to wait for economic data to bottom out and for this new policy direct to solidify,\u2019 he said.HSBC Global Private Banking remains concerned the steps China has taken aren\u2019t enough to reverse the nation\u2019s slowing long-term growth outlook.\u201cMore significant fiscal easing is still needed to sustain the recovery momentum and shore up growth to achieve the 5% 2024 GDP growth target,\u201d said , chief investment officer for Asia at the private bank in Hong Kong. \u201cFor now, we stay neutral on mainland China and Hong Kong equities based on our expectation of China\u2019s GDP growth decelerating from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025.\u201dStill, some remain bullish, saying valuations are cheap due to the three-year selloff.\u201cThe rally can run, there\u2019s a lot of money that still needs to rebalance. especially from global investors,\u201d , global head of multi-asset investment management at Fidelity International in Hong Kong, said on Bloomberg Television.\u201cWe know valuations are still below mean and could run further from a technical view. This could have more legs and how much it goes into earnings is a bigger question,\u201d he said.Nomura Holdings Inc. is among the most pessimistic, warning the rally may quickly turn from.In the most gloomy scenario, \u201ca stock market mania would be followed by a crash, similar to what happened in 2015,\u201d Nomura economists led by  in Hong Kong wrote in a note to clients. That outcome may have a \u201cmuch higher probability\u201d than more optimistic scenarios, they said.Some investors and strategists are also wary about what the stimulus blitz means for the nation\u2019s bonds and currency.China\u2019s bonds have dropped since the stock rally started, ending at least temporarily a period in which yields set successive record lows as investors bought haven assets.\u201cThere are still major challenges to be resolved, and it\u2019s not an easy road,\u201d said , chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank in Hong Kong. \u201cWe need to ensure that this policy blitz is effective in stabilizing the downward trajectory of the housing market and not just result in a rush of hot money to equities.\u201dBonds may become a beneficiary if the stock market cools, Song said. \u201cThere\u2019s certainly a risk we could revert back to the previous months\u2019 environment if anything goes wrong in the next steps ahead.\u201dYuan traders will be watching out on Tuesday for the central bank\u2019s daily reference rate, the level around which the currency is allowed to trade. The onshore yuan has strengthened more than 1% in the past month to approach the key level of 7 per dollar. A break of that barrier may trigger a further rally.<\/pre>\n
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