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\u6b22\u8fce\u6765\u5230Next China\uff01\u6211\u4eec\u805a\u7126\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd9\u5ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5de8\u64d8\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\u4e3a\u60a8\u6df1\u5165\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u8981\u76f4\u63a5\u8ba2\u9605\u8fd9\u672c\u7535\u5b50\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u3010\u94fe\u63a5\u3011\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>Stakes Are High for China\u2019s Golden Week After Flurry of Stimulus<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-10-04
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  Welcome to Next China. Each week, we take you inside the economic giant that is China. To subscribe to this newsletter directly, click .  This week, we explore China\u2019s Golden Week and its special importance, why Beijing is advising companies to avoid Nvidia, and look at what's going viral behind the Great Firewall.Hi, this is Yanping Li in Singapore. This Golden Week holiday in China is indeed quite golden. Domestic investors are likely celebrating after stimulus sent markets . Mainland stocks closed out the final trading day in a bull market.The holiday season typically sees a surge in Chinese travelers, making it a key indicator of consumer spending in the world\u2019s second-biggest economy. This has taken on extra significance this year, with economists and traders looking to see if President Xi Jinping\u2019s latest  can reinvigorate the country\u2019s downcast consumers. There are some very early signs of recovery. As soon as cities relaxed homebuying rules, people quickly  to showrooms \u2014 even in the middle of the night. Travel booking data shows more Chinese are to Europe and Asian destinations like Japan and Malaysia compared to last year and even before the Covid-19 pandemic. Domestic travel is also booming, with the national rail network seeing a record number of passenger trips on the first day of the holiday. State media are hyping up the holiday spending data. Almost daily, headlines with words like \u201c\u201d or \u201cexceed\u201d would pop up on news apps from China Central Television and Xinhua News Agency, highlighting figures such as nationwide cinema ticket sales, railway traffic, and road trips.We won\u2019t have a complete view of China\u2019s holiday spending until next week at least. For the current optimism to last, Beijing will need to follow through on the stimulus measures it has announced \u2014 and possibly even more. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said policymakers must do \u201c\u201d to bring about a turnaround.That would likely require major fiscal firepower \u2014 something that could push stimulus into \u201cbazooka\u201d territory, if unleashed. The elite 24-man Politburo has urged officials to issue and better utilize ultra-long special sovereign bonds and local special notes to drive investment without giving specifics, fueling speculation on the strength of the fiscal measures. Jia Kang, a former head of a research institute affiliated with the Ministry of Finance, said the country has room to ramp up fiscal support for the economy by issuing as much as 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in special debt.That would be many times the 1 trillion yuan in ultra-long special sovereign bonds the government planned to sell this year. But he said that would be a proportional increase from the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package in 2008, given China\u2019s gross domestic product had quadrupled in nominal terms by the end of 2023.As a historic rally in Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks  on Thursday, with traders taking a moment to reflect after a more than 30% surge since early September, it remains to be seen whether the dip is just a brief setback.Much is at stake this Golden Week. If the conditions leading into the holiday were so favorable and yet failed to boost consumer spending, it would raise the question what could?   What We\u2019re Reading, Listening to and Watching:China is determined to become self-sufficient in key areas like electric vehicle semiconductors and advanced hardware, even if it means sacrificing access to the best chips to support its local companies.Beijing is encouraging Chinese tech companies to buy more locally produced AI chips instead of those from Nvidia, which are considered the best for training algorithms. This move aims to strengthen domestic alternatives like Huawei and Cambricon Technologies, Bloomberg News .The policy serves as guidance rather than an outright ban as Beijing seeks to avoid escalating tensions with the US and hurting its own AI tech development. Broadly, the move aligns with China\u2019s efforts to quickly boost domestic chip production and reduce reliance on foreign technology, especially amid a growing US-led campaign to restrict its access to the most sophisticated semiconductors and equipment. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that the value of semiconductor production by Chinese companies will reach 40% of the country\u2019s chip demand by 2030, up from 16% in 2022, though most of the capacity expansion will be focused on mature nodes due to technology constraints. Huawei\u2019s release of Mate 60 Pro 5G handset last year was a major breakthrough in China\u2019s self-sufficiency drive. The phone\u2019s development, featuring an advanced locally-made processor with help from Shanghai-based Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., demonstrated that Chinese companies can continue to  despite growing restrictions. Additionally, 50% of the critical components in the Mate 60 Pro handset came from Chinese suppliers, an increase from less than 40% for the Mate 30 Pro in 2019, to research firm Yole Group.Earlier this year, Chinese officials  local EV makers to sharply increase their purchases from domestic auto chipmakers.This has implications for other countries: the European Union has  that its chipmakers, including NXP Semiconductors NV, may lose market share in China. And the Biden administration is so concerned about potential oversupply from China\u2019s chip capacity expansion that it has  50% tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports. However, this pushback will only strengthen China\u2019s resolve to keep replacing foreign technology imports.Xi  this at a national science conference in June, saying some core technologies are still controlled by others and that China faces a shortage of top scientific and technological talent.\u201cWe need to ramp up our innovation and claim the high ground in technological competition and future development,\u2019\u2019 the Chinese leader said.   A weekly look at an item that\u2019s been big water cooler news in China.After a barrage of stimulus announcements, Chinese stocks have gone from unloved to a fan favorite in a span of a few days. The interest was so  that broker applications were overwhelmed and requests for opening trading accounts surged. This frenzy even sparked memes featuring the unlikeliest of characters, such as a man on crutches, a food delivery driver and a monk, at brokerages opening accounts.With the policy support coming just before the holiday, people on social media shared stories about how the rally emboldened them to splurge on their trips. One friend even texted the day after the rally to say he was upgrading his flight at the airport \u2014 exactly the wealth effect that Beijing is aiming for.It\u2019s been long overdue. Chinese stocks have been struggling as the economy grapples with a persistent real estate crisis and . Earlier this year, a market meltdown prompted many to flock to the US embassy social media account to their losses. Retail investors even began calling themselves \u201c\u201d to express their disappointment with the poor returns.So the current enthusiasm is understandable, even though there\u2019s also a sense of skepticism. After all, Chinese investors have been  several times before.\"As an old chive who's been watching A shares for over twenty years, the current festive mood feels like d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu,\" a user wrote on Weibo, striking a pessimistic tone and hinting at a potential crash following the rally.Others have noted that the lack of attractive investment options is fueling this euphoria.\u201cThere haven\u2019t been many good investment options since the real estate collapse,\u201d one user wrote. \u201cSo when something becomes investable, people will rush in, just like they did with bonds and stocks.\u201d<\/pre>\n
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