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\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7ecf\u7eaa\u516c\u53f8Pepperstone\u4f26\u6566\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u5206\u6790\u5e08Michael Brown\u8865\u5145\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u624d\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5c42\u9762\u6240\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u5173\u952e\u70b9\u3002\u201d <\/p>\n

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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.nytimes.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>How an Israeli Strike on Iran\u2019s Oil Sector Would Impact China<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-10-04
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Iran\u2019s oil infrastructure has been pushed to the center of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, but an Israeli strike on Iran\u2019s energy facilities would also affect China directly.\nOn Thursday, President Biden said the United States was \u201cin discussion\u201d about the possibility that Israel might strike Iran\u2019s vast oil sector.\nHis comments have already sent oil prices sharply higher in global markets, even though most countries shun Iran\u2019s oil because of international sanctions on Tehran.\nChina is the exception. It buys more than 90 percent of Iran\u2019s oil exports.\nChina relies on imports from around the world for almost three-quarters of its oil consumption. The loss of supply from Iran would have China turning to global markets for even more of its energy needs.\nFor Iran, exports to China are a vital source of funds. The country\u2019s roughly $2 billion a month in oil sales to China represent at least 5 percent of Iran\u2019s entire economic output. They bankroll the Iranian government and provide the cash that Iran needs to pay for its own imports.\nIran exports nearly half of its oil production and uses the rest for its own domestic needs. The sliver of Iran\u2019s oil exports that China does not purchase is shipped mainly as economic assistance or barter to two nearly bankrupt allies, Syria and Venezuela, that have little money to pay for fuel.\nOil from Iran is cheap, and sold at sizable discounts to world prices because sanctions have left so few buyers. Oil from Iran sells for even less than oil from Russia. While China, India and some developing countries continue to buy Russian oil despite Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, practically no one except China is willing to purchase Iranian oil.\nChina needs to buy a lot of energy to keep its economy going. It is the world\u2019s biggest oil importer and the second-largest oil consumer behind the United States. \nYet China has done much to limit its overall reliance on oil. While oil accounts for 40 percent of energy used in the United States, it is only about 20 percent of China\u2019s overall energy supply, said Gabriel Collins, a China energy researcher at Rice University\u2019s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston.\nSlightly more than half the cars sold in China now are battery electric or plug-in gasoline-electric hybrid cars. China generates the energy to power those cars mainly by burning coal \u2014 China is the world\u2019s dominant producer and consumer of coal \u2014 and with solar panels and wind turbines. Much of China\u2019s oil imports is used for the country\u2019s chemical industry, which is the world\u2019s largest, or to refine the diesel that powers trucks.\nAn estimated 15 percent of China\u2019s oil imports comes from Iran, according to Andon Pavlov, senior refining and oil products analyst at Kpler, a firm in Vienna that specializes in tracking Iran\u2019s oil shipments. Russia is China\u2019s single largest supplier of oil, but China also buys a lot from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Angola.\nMembers of the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries produce as much as five million barrels per day of oil less than their full capacity. The group, a cartel of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia, churns out less than it could, so as to keep prices fairly high. If China were unable to buy its usual amount from Iran \u2014 about one million to 1.5 million barrels per day \u2014 it might find Iran\u2019s neighbors happy to supply it instead.\nAs a result, the damage to China\u2019s economy from even a long-term interruption of oil from Iran would be minimal, provided that other countries stepped up their shipments, oil experts said.\n\u201cAny interruptions to Iranian oil exports would probably be quickly replaced with increases in China\u2019s other sources of supply,\u201d said Roger Fouquet, an energy specialist at the National University of Singapore.\nChina has been expanding its oil reserves over the past several years. As home building has slowed with the country\u2019s housing market crash, many construction workers have been redeployed to making oil storage tanks.\nAnalysts have long guessed that China is swiftly increasing reserves in preparation for a possible conflict with Taiwan, which could result in a disruption of all of mainland China\u2019s seaborne imports. But China\u2019s reserves, now estimated to equal more than three months of the country\u2019s entire oil imports and two years of China\u2019s imports from Iran, would provide a cushion in case of an interruption of Iran\u2019s supplies.\n\u201cIf it\u2019s 30 days of madness, China would glide over that like it\u2019s a speed bump,\u201d said Alex Turnbull, a commodities analyst in Singapore.\nThe big question for China is not whether Israel might strike at Iran\u2019s oil infrastructure, but how Iran would respond, according to experts.\nAt least 20 percent of the world\u2019s oil, and an even larger share of China\u2019s oil imports, travels on ships past Iran\u2019s shores through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Most of OPEC\u2019s five million barrels a day of excess capacity lies in oil fields that need to export through the Strait of Hormuz.\nIf Israel were to disable Iran\u2019s ability to export oil, Iran\u2019s rivals in the region could cash in by stepping up their exports to China. But Iran could stop them by using missiles to halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.\nSaudi Arabia has tried to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for part of its production by building pipelines to the Red Sea instead. But that waterway is now also dangerous because of attacks from Yemen by Houthi rebels backed by Iran.\nFor China, \u201cit\u2019s not so much what the impact of the strike is,\u201d Mr. Collins said, \u201cbut what is the impact of Iran\u2019s response?\u201d\nMichael Brown, a commodities specialist in the London office of Pepperstone, an Australian brokerage, added: \u201cThat\u2019s the big concern from a global perspective.\u201d\n<\/pre>\n
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