{"id":2648,"date":"2024-10-04T02:40:29","date_gmt":"2024-10-03T18:40:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2648"},"modified":"2024-10-04T02:40:29","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T18:40:29","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e9%a1%b6%e7%ba%a7%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6%ef%bc%9a%e5%8d%83%e4%ba%bf%e8%b4%a2%e6%94%bf%e5%88%ba%e6%bf%80%e6%96%b9%e6%a1%88%e8%93%84%e5%8a%bf%e5%be%85%e5%8f%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2648","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u9876\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff1a\u5343\u4ebf\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u65b9\u6848\u84c4\u52bf\u5f85\u53d1"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\n

\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China Ready for $1.4 Trillion Fiscal Bazooka, Top Economist Says<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-10-03
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

A leading economist in China said the country has room to ramp up fiscal support for the economy by issuing as much as 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in special debt, reflecting rising expectations for Beijing to expand public spending as part of its stimulus package.Jia Kang, a former head of a research institute affiliated with the Ministry of Finance, said authorities could lift confidence by drastically raising government investment in public projects. He spoke in an interview with Chinese publication The Paper published Tuesday.\u201cAs these projects get underway, they will create jobs, increase income for citizens, and unlock consumption potential,\u201d said Jia, who now leads the China Academy of New Supply-Side Economics, a private think tank. Without giving a possible timeline, he said \u201cscaling up the bond issuance now to 4 trillion or even 10 trillion yuan would not be excessive.\u201dThe comments add to a growing discussion over what the Ministry of Finance will \u2014 or should \u2014 do to boost the world\u2019s No. 2 economy after Beijing signaled its desire to  under its growth slowdown. The elite 24-man Politburo urged officials to issue ultra-long special sovereign bonds and local special notes to drive investment without giving specifics, fueling speculation on the strength of the fiscal measures. The debt issuance Jia suggested would be many multiples of the 1 trillion yuan in ultra-long special sovereign bonds the government planned to  this year. But he said that would be a proportional increase from the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package in 2008, given China\u2019s gross domestic product had quadrupled in nominal terms by the end of 2023.\u201cUsing public debt mechanisms properly won\u2019t overburden the government,\u201d he told The Paper. \u201cLong-term and ultra-long-term government bonds, with 30- to 50-year maturities, offer significant flexibility and are worth utilizing, remaining within safe limits.\u201d Reuters reported last week that the Ministry of Finance is planning to issue 2 trillion yuan of special sovereign bonds this year. That funding will be evenly split between stimulating consumption and helping local governments tackle debt problems, the news agency said, citing two people familiar with the matter.The ambitions set out by Jia are \u201crealistic,\u201d according to , head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Plc. \u201cThis is more about the willingness to support, not so much about the quantity \u2014 if it is not enough, there will be more until it is enough,\u201d she said.Economists at  estimate direct fiscal stimulus will amount to 1 trillion yuan, with a potential package split between boosting consumption and funding large projects. The total amount could be double that or more, including funds for  banks to shore up big lenders, economists including Jing Liu wrote in a note Thursday.Beijing\u2019s stimulus blitz fueled a rally in stocks, with the the benchmark  jumping the most since 2008 on Monday before the country entered a weeklong holiday. A gauge of Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies rose for 13 straight sessions on stimulus optimism until a  on Thursday, when it fell 1.58%.Danske Bank A\/S called the efforts the biggest stimulus measures since the global financial crisis, revising its growth forecast for China next year to 5.2% from 4.8%. The country will gradually become less of a global disinflationary factor and more a neutral force as the economy stabilizes, the bank\u2019s chief China economist  said in a note on Wednesday.Now the focus is turning to any coming fiscal support. Economists believe greater spending is needed to boost , with consumer confidence falling to its weakest in August since November 2022.\u201cIn the near term, the conventional fiscal policy is the key to watch, as the government will disclose more details,\u201d Macquarie Group Ltd. economists  and  wrote in a note on Monday. \u201cLater in October, the government may announce more quota for special sovereign bonds or special local government bonds.\u201dIn 2023, China\u2019s top legislative body used its October session to authorize the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in additional special government bonds.Nomura\u2019s chief China economist  said the government could invest in mega infrastructure projects, increase spending on social security and directly fund delayed housing projects \u2014 effectively becoming the \u201cbuilder of last resort.\u201d But he added that the government would have to face some constraints as it considers its fiscal options.\u201cBeijing will surely roll out a raft of fiscal measures and other supportive policies, but the eventual scale and content of the fiscal package might be quite improvised and uncertain due to the brewing stock bubble and still-controversial debates on what Beijing should focus on,\u201d Lu wrote in a note on Thursday.Morgan Stanley economists including  echoed the caution, citing factors including the country\u2019s current debt burden. China\u2019s  rose to a record 286% earlier this year, according to central bank and statistics bureau data compiled by Bloomberg.\u201cThe ask for fiscal expansion will only increase from here,\u201d Ahya, chief Asia economist, and others wrote in a Tuesday note. \u201cWhile there is as such no hard limit on how expansionary fiscal policy can be, we believe that policymakers may be naturally hesitant to provide significant accommodation against the backdrop of wide fiscal deficits and elevated levels of public debt.\u201d<\/pre>\n
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