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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China Stimulus Sparks Big Rally That Also Helps US<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-10-02
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

If you look away from the US for a moment, you realize there\u2019s a monster rally happening in China, fueled by a powerful package of economic stimulus. While it\u2019s not clear if the policy measures behind the rally are enough to build a sustainable return to prodigious growth in China, they add another level of support to US-focused investors. After all, US markets and the economy are already reaping the benefits of other stimulus in the form of massive peacetime government spending and front-loaded monetary easing. Combine that with the moves in China \u2014 a major trading partner and driver of global growth \u2014 and I\u2019d be shocked if that wasn\u2019t enough to keep the US chugging along, at least for the next several months.The takeaway: Worries about a US recession, while legitimate, are probably overblown. It\u2019s actually Europe where the growth dynamics stink. And that means the \u201coverweight US assets\u201d play still has legs.I\u2019ll try and dive a bit deeper into the following points as I make that case:You\u2019ve probably heard that  a gaggle of measures designed to boost its ailing economy. And while economists have sounded skeptical about the likely long-term efficacy of the stimulus, it has ignited a breathtaking rally in equity markets in both mainland China and Hong Kong. Just today, Bloomberg was describing how brokers were swamped by buy orders in .With mainland Chinese markets shut for a week\u2019s holiday, the action moved to Hong Kong on Wednesday, with Chinese shares listed there . Shares of beaten-down property developers were up by nearly 50% at one point. Brokerage shares advanced by 35% intraday.A lot of this is probably just a sentiment shift after so much bad news. Still, the one-year chart of the Hang Seng Chinese Enterprise Index says everything with the near vertical line showing shares some 60% off the lows early this year.Despite its recent road bumps, China\u2019s economy remains the  in the world. So what happens there matters. And in the context of a world economy that has grown accustomed to slowing Chinese growth and a lack of any wealth effect from Chinese asset markets, this stimulus has to be a net positive \u2014 even if it yields few long-lasting changes in the economy there.Chinese stimulus may have only tangential benefits for the US economy, but it\u2019s reflective of the global tide that promises to keep recession at bay. What the US government does is far more relevant, though.In the fiscal year ended on Monday, the US federal government  by the Congressional Budget Office to have injected $1.8 trillion of money into the private sector by spending more than it taxed. Every dollar the US government spends without taxing is stimulus because the difference represents a net increase in total financial assets of the private sector. In the past 12 months, the deficit stimulus was 5.8%, well more than the growth rate of the US economy and orders of magnitude more important than the Chinese actions. What the difference between GDP growth and the deficit tells you is that, if the US government hadn\u2019t spent the way it did, the economy would be in recession. It\u2019s as simple as that.But then there\u2019s the Fed. By lowering interest rates, it promises to ease financial conditions, which is just a fancy way of saying it plans to make it easier for people and businesses to pay back the debt they have and take on even more. That\u2019s significant, because before the market anticipated the Fed\u2019s moves this summer, auto-loan delinquencies had been rising. And some private equity-backed companies had run into serious problems repaying loans. Meanwhile, lower rates won\u2019t erase the problems besetting commercial real estate. But the ability to refinance debt means fewer problems in that arena, too. Finally, we are already seeing a pickup in mortgage refinancing as home-loan rates have eased. And that, too, will add to the financial firepower of US households.You add the China stimulus to US monetary easing to what MMT grandee  \u201cdrunken sailor\u201d levels of deficits and you have a booming global economy.The big negative is Europe. And I am thinking about Germany more than anything. I listen to a daily Dutch-language podcast called NRC Vandaag that picks big issues to highlight daily. On Tuesday, they had one titled \u201cPanic at Volkswagen: Is the German Economy in Danger?\u201d And while the title makes you think this was about the German car industry, it was really an expose on the de-industrialization of Europe\u2019s onetime economic engine on multiple fronts.  With , the country is likely in a recession.This is a big reason that European inflation has now fallen below 2%. And it\u2019s also why we should expect more rate cuts from the ECB. But that stimulus won\u2019t be nearly enough to overcome Germany\u2019s manufacturing woes or the receding tide of fiscal policy. With a deficit of just 1.8% of GDP  of 2024, Germany is running federal stimulus only one-third as large as the US. Even if the country increased its deficit to the European Union\u2019s 3% red line, it would probably be enough to escape recession.Bottom line: Germany may be more fiscally conservative than many EU countries. But as the largest economy in Europe, its moribund economy ripples across the globe as a drag on global growth. And other less fiscally austere countries like France and Italy have their own problems. So Europe isn\u2019t significantly adding to the tide of global stimulus. With the US, and now China, giving the world a boost, it probably doesn\u2019t matter. But it does mean European-based equity investments will lag behind for the foreseeable future.I see this as confirmation of the patterns that emerged after the Global Financial Crisis a decade and a half ago. The US cleaned up its banks quicker while Europe had a sovereign debt crisis. Meanwhile, the US tech giants helped markets there outperform. While Europe did whatever it took to overcome the pandemic, it has dialed back fiscal support. And so, US economic outperformance from its tech-heavy skew and deficit-fueled growth has led to yet more outperformance by US shares.Given how the tide of global stimulus is set up, this tilt toward US-centric investing won\u2019t change for at least a few months, if not much longer.We did  the US a week ago that if deficits keep piling up, the ratings company will be forced to downgrade the country\u2019s credit rating.Does it really matter though? I would argue it doesn\u2019t. Interest rates for sovereign currency issuers like the US see their long-term interest rates determined mostly by expectations for future shorter-term rates. Look at Japan as an example. The Japanese government has the highest debt load in the G-7. And yet, because the country\u2019s central bank has kept overnight lending rates so low, long-term rates have been low too.In a worst-case scenario, US deficit spending could cause the economy to overheat, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates. And that would be the way the deficits hurt the economy, not a debt downgrade. I think the fiasco with the UK\u2019s 2022 mini-budget proposal is a textbook case of how things could unravel in such a worst-case scenario. That\u2019s unlikely because of the US\u2019s reserve currency status. But let\u2019s see what the next US administration proposes in 2025.Meanwhile, it\u2019s steady as she goes. It really does look like the Fed has achieved a soft landing. And with inflation coming down, we can expect it to cut rates even more going forward, a recipe for a continued boom.Explore all newsletters at .<\/pre>\n
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