{"id":2622,"date":"2024-10-04T01:47:57","date_gmt":"2024-10-03T17:47:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2622"},"modified":"2024-10-04T01:47:57","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T17:47:57","slug":"%e5%88%ba%e6%bf%80%e6%8e%aa%e6%96%bd%e5%b3%b0%e5%80%bc%e6%9c%9f%e6%9d%83%e6%8a%bc%e6%b3%a8%e5%87%b8%e6%98%be%e5%af%b9%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e5%bd%b1%e5%93%8d%e7%96%91%e8%99%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2622","title":{"rendered":"\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u5cf0\u503c\u671f\u6743\u62bc\u6ce8\u51f8\u663e\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f71\u54cd\u7591\u8651"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>Yuan Options Bets Reveal Jitters Over China Stimulus Impact<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-10-02
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

Market euphoria around China\u2019s stimulus blitz is at risk of sputtering sooner rather than later, if yuan option wagers are any guide.The volume of dollar-yuan trading surged last week in the  foreign-exchange options market, according to Bank of America and Citigroup Inc. Traders have been betting on an appreciation of China\u2019s currency over the coming month \u2014 but beyond that short-term move, the outlook is far less certain.\u201cIn the longer term beyond the US election, we continue to see broader structural interest for dollar calls, which is suggesting the investor community still has concerns about fundamental drivers of the dollar-yuan exchange rate,\u201d said , head of Asia Pacific G10 FX trading at Bank of America.The shifting view of options traders add another data point to  of  from Chinese officials last week, which sent stock prices soaring and fueled a wave of yuan trading in the derivatives market.Yuan option  jumped 42% above their five-day average on Sept. 25 in reaction to the measures, shows data compiled by Blooomberg. But signs of exhaustion are already emerging.The  to hedge the depreciation of the dollar against the offshore yuan over the next month, compared with its upside, has fallen by more than 80% since September 26, as the initial stimulus euphoria fades. Yuan option trading volume on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation has also tailed off, ending last week 16% below its five day average.\u201cWe saw demand for shorter dated dollar puts, which impacted the skew aggressively,\u201d says , Singapore-based head of FX trading for Asia Pacific at Citigroup Inc. \u201cHowever, this seems to be transient for now.\u201dA major worry for options traders is the US election in November, when a Donald Trump win could lead to a resumption of the tit-for-tat trade war between the world\u2019s two largest economies.The options trades, which involve China\u2019s offshore currency, reflect sentiment among foreign investors rather than those inside the country. Since China\u2019s stock and bond markets are dominated by domestic accounts, rising skepticism from foreign traders doesn\u2019t necessarily herald a coming selloff. But the trades show that initial euphoria around China\u2019s stimulus blitz, at least in some markets, has made way for doubts.The spot currency market is also reflecting a shift in sentiment among foreign investors. The dollar is trading back above 7.0 against the offshore yuan, just days after breaching what is seen as a key psychological level.\u201cWe saw clients sell dollar-yuan initially unwinding previous long dollar positions,\u201d says , London-based head of EM FX trading EEMEA at Nomura Holdings Inc. \u201cThere is still uncertainty ahead of the US elections and market is not fully on board the bullish China sentiment with a risk of Trump presidency still there.\u201d <\/pre>\n
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