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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China Dominating Emerging Markets Again as MSCI Weight Soars<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-10-02
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In just eight days,  regained the influence it lost over 10 months in .The country\u2019s weight in  for EM equities climbed back to 27.8% at the end of September, the highest level since November 2023, before the country\u2019s markets closed for a long holiday on Tuesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on the gauge\u2019s shares listed on mainland, Hong Kong and overseas markets. The increase in China\u2019s weighting was powered by a $3.2 trillion rally in its stocks since Sept. 18, when the Federal Reserve gave a green light to global monetary easing and China followed up with a stimulus bazooka. The stunning turnaround ends a phase in which Chinese stocks were the laggard in emerging markets, losing share in index weights month after month as rival markets such as India, Taiwan and South Korea surged ahead. Amid deepening outflows and an underperformance that took China to a  versus the rest of EM, global money managers increasingly started reducing exposure to the country. From Morgan Stanley to HSBC Holdings Plc and Pictet Asset Management, the ranks of China skeptics swelled. Amid the gloom, though, a small band of investors remained faithful to bullish China calls \u2014 touting the possibility of greater stimulus as well as . The past few days seem to have validated them.\u201cIt is against the back of very low valuations that this ferocious move up has happened,\u201d said , a strategist at Tellimer in Dubai. \u201cIt was a folly to think of emerging markets ex-China, given its size, links with the rest of EM, and its cheap valuation, unless sanctions prohibit allocating assets there. This episode, which will have ruined the relative performance of some funds in the third quarter, proves that.\u201dChina\u2019s charge back into the top of the emerging-market leaderboard has been led by mainland stocks, with the benchmark  soaring 27% since the Fed rate cut. That helped the country beat other emerging markets last month by the most since June 2022. And as the mainland markets closed for a weeklong holiday, Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares continued the rally \u2014 rising for a 13 successive sessions, the longest run since January 2018.The gains came after China unleashed a  to support the economy and markets. Apart from interest-rate cuts, the central bank established a swap program for financial institutions and introduced a special re-lending facility encouraging buybacks \u2014 direct, targeted measures aimed squarely at the stock market. The moves were followed by pledges from the Politburo for deeper stimulus.Some investors caution against overstating the magnitude of China\u2019s gains. The rally came off a low base both in terms of valuations and relative performance. Chinese stocks underperformed the rest of EM for four years and sunk to a record low in relative terms just before the Fed move on Sept. 18. Even after this recent rally, they have barely recouped 16% of that underperformance \u2014 still leaving a vast gap in returns over the past four years.The \u2019s valuation \u2014 the multiple of price over estimated earnings \u2014 remains under 10. And the gauge still trades at a 44% discount to the rest of emerging markets, compared with the 15% discount it traded at two years ago. \u201cThe Chinese stock market is still holding single-digit valuations despite these gains, leaving significant room to catch up to the five-year average valuations of 11 to 12 times,\u201d said , head of asset management at Shuaa Capital, which maintains a neutral stance on China. \u201cFor the rally to be sustainable, we need to see improvements in resumption of consumption, housing-sector activity, and a reduction in deflationary pressures. Additionally, the government needs to address the labor market.\u201d China\u2019s improving fortunes are having other impacts on emerging markets, underscoring the country\u2019s importance to the overall asset class. South Africa\u2019s  completed seven successive months of gains, their longest streak since May 2021, partly on optimism that Chinese stimulus will help drive demand for the country\u2019s exports to the world\u2019s second-biggest economy.Still, an absence of gains in areas like  could bring back skepticism on China, leaving the outlook for broader emerging markets dependent on successful implementation of the stimulus. While authorities have demonstrated a commitment to provide support to the economy and equity markets, further measures are needed, Malik of Tellimer said.\u201cWe have not actually seen the sort of fiscal stimulus for consumers that fixes the biggest structural weakness in the macroeconomy,\u201d he said. \u201cFundamentally, we\u2019re not out of the woods.\u201d<\/pre>\n
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