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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China Should Get Serious About Peace in Ukraine<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-10-01
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US officials have dismissed China\u2019s latest attempt to play peacemaker in Ukraine as insincere and inadequate. They have a point: China continues to supply the machine tools and microelectronics that allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to replenish his war machine and keep gobbling up Ukrainian territory.But prospects for China to play a more productive role in ending the fighting are growing. Beijing ought to be positioning itself for that moment.On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last week, China and Brazil  a meeting attended by 17 nations to promote the six-point \u201cpeace plan\u201d they jointly proposed in May. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy  it as \u201chalf-hearted\u201d and rightly warned that it would \u201cgive Moscow the political space to continue the war.\u201d None of Ukraine\u2019s Western supporters support the plan.The proposal calls only for both sides not to escalate the fighting, which would allow Russia to keep battling for territory. \u201cA peace in which the aggressor gets everything that it sought, and the victim does not have its rights upheld, is not a recipe for a lasting peace, and certainly not a just one,\u201d US Secretary of State Antony Blinken complained. While that\u2019s certainly correct, China is sincere in at least one thing: its desire to prevent a protracted hot war. The longer the fighting continues, the more damage it inflicts on Beijing\u2019s strained relations with Europe, and the more it helps the US solidify the transatlantic alliance. China could pay an even higher cost if Putin carries out his threat to respond with nuclear weapons if Ukraine uses long-range Western weapons to attack Russia.An outright Putin victory would not necessarily be the best outcome for Beijing either. After they finished toasting Russia\u2019s humiliation of the West, Chinese leaders would confront the same grim geopolitical reality as before.The great economic decoupling with the West will grind on and the US will keep tightening the military screws around China with upgraded security arrangements and deployment of more lethal capabilities. The main change might be that an emboldened Putin finds himself less dependent on Beijing.Far better for China would be an armistice that freezes the conflict, similar to the one that ended the Korean War. Such an outcome would tie down considerable Western resources in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia\u2019s need for continued Chinese support would make it a more dependable strategic partner.While Ukraine understandably opposes such an unsatisfactory resolution, which would leave the aggressor in possession of land seized by force, facts on the ground are pushing toward a long-term stalemate. Russia is paying huge costs for incremental gains in eastern Ukraine \u2014 suffering 1,000 casualties a day \u2014 and it lacks the capability to achieve a decisive breakthrough. At the same time, Western support for Ukraine is facing growing opposition from the surging  in Europe and war-weary followers of Donald Trump in the US.If Trump recaptures the White House and involves himself in ending the war as he\u2019s pledged to do, Beijing could have a critical role to play in negotiations.To prepare, China should be intensifying its diplomatic engagement with Europe and the US now, serving as a messenger between Ukraine\u2019s supporters and Russia (a role that its rival India might otherwise seek to fill). The fact that it has cover from countries in the Global South such as Brazil should allow Beijing to tweak its positions to narrow the gap with Western nations.Next, Xi must decide how far he\u2019s willing to push Putin to strike a deal. China does not have the leverage to pressure Russia to accept an immediate ceasefire or to return land it has occupied since 2014. But limiting Chinese support for the Russian military \u2014 and hinting that Moscow should not expect more in future \u2014 could encourage Putin to end a war he has no realistic hope of winning decisively.To make their joint peace proposal more credible, China and Brazil should add a more explicit demand for a ceasefire and underscore that a final territorial settlement must be agreed by both Ukraine and Russia. Such a position is in accordance with China\u2019s longstanding principle of respecting territorial integrity and allows it to maintain a more credible appearance of neutrality.In the meantime, Xi should quietly make clear to Putin his preference for freezing the conflict. When the gap between Ukraine and Russia is narrow enough, the nudge can become more explicit.That risks alienating the Russian leader, of course. But given his dependence on Chinese support, a real rift is unlikely. China is already paying a high cost for Putin\u2019s war. It\u2019s worth taking more substantial risks to end it.  More From Bloomberg Opinion:  Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to     .<\/pre>\n
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