\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n To get John Authers' newsletter delivered directly to your inbox, sign up . China\u2019s stimulus packages announced last week came right on cue for the Golden Week celebrations. Domestic investors can take the week off happy in the knowledge that their stock portfolios have just gained 25% in six days. It\u2019s been breathtaking, and has taken up Chinese stocks wherever they are quoted:But while the impact on China\u2019s asset prices is instantaneous, these reforms are far from the silver bullet to deal with endemic economic woes. The lag in transmission means the measures \u2014 which include interest-rate cuts, liquidity and support for the stock market, a 20-basis-point reduction in the seven-day reverse repo rate, a 50-basis-point decrease in the reserve requirement ratio, and an average drop of 50 basis points on rates on existing mortgages \u2014 will take some time to bear fruit in the real economy.The is harder to gauge at a time when US investors are . The remarkable rally in Shanghai and Shenzhen after China intervened to deal with the Global Financial Crisis, but it hasn\u2019t buoyed other emerging markets in the same way. Instead, it\u2019s had a drastic effect on the many EM managers who had found since Covid that the way to beat the benchmark was to be underweight China. That trade has suddenly and violently turned against them, raising concerns about :The commodity market suggests that a real impact is underway. Renewed confidence in a Chinese economic turnaround is a boon, . The real estate market, long a significant growth engine, has in the past been correlated with demand for more industrial metals, and so the package aimed at relieving the deep property crisis sparked a rally in metals prices. Iron ore \u2014 which had been one of the year\u2019s worst-performing major commodities as the economy slowed \u2014 is surging on hopes of a reversal in the real estate slump:However, there are legitimate questions over whether the rally is more than froth, especially given the prolonged collapse of the real estate sector since the pandemic as Beijing prioritized help for manufacturing. Authorities have now mandatorily reduced mortgage rates and cut the down payment required for second homes to 20% from 25% in hopes of spurring demand. Are these measures enough to engineer a turnaround in construction and sustain the metals rally? Probably not. However, Gavekal Research\u2019s Andrew Batson and Wei He suggest that it\u2019s significant the sector is getting the attention it deserves:Capital Economics\u2019 Kieran Tompkins argues that so far, the scale of the recent stimulus is on par with what was announced last year in the wake of lifting Covid restrictions, which boosted \u201cgrowth fleetingly for a few months.\u201d The measures are no \u201csilver bullet for the structural headwinds to the sector and so we think the stimulus-inspired turnaround in industrial metal prices is likely to prove short-lived.\u201d He explains that previous rounds of fiscal stimulus relied on infrastructure spending as a key channel of support, but this package tilts toward consumers. Any help for metals demand is more indirect, as from to encourage consumers to trade in old cars for electric vehicles:This Capital Economics chart shows that the stimulus effect \u2014 barring subsequent interventions \u2014 would be muffled in the long run:Perhaps in consequence, the sharp rise in metals prices hasn\u2019t translated into the international effects witnessed after previous episodes. Latin American stocks generally benefit whenever China stimulates, as it\u2019s seen as a boon for their large metals-exporting businesses. This round, however, hasn\u2019t helped them in the slightest, and they continue to lag the rest of the world: The removal of a financial \u201ctail risk\u201din China, plus the likely surge in liquidity, is plenty enough to buoy global asset prices. But Beijing\u2019s renewed sense of urgency over real estate isn\u2019t enough to address overcapacity, which is endemic not only in the industrial metals sector. Officials know the task ahead is no walk in the park. They\u2019ll at least be comforted . The expectation on them is that further policy support isn\u2019t off-limits if needed. For now, though, China\u2019s holidaymakers can relax knowing that they have something to smile about. \u2014Richard AbbeyHas he done it again? Almost six years ago, on the eve of his investiture as Mexico\u2019s president, I suggested that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador had He\u2019d done this by scaring international investors and driving the main stock index to a nine-year low in dollar terms. Now that he\u2019s about to relinquish office to his preferred successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, he indeed saw a tremendous stock market rally that lasted four years. That was because he was always rather than many realized, and determined not to preside over a crisis. Mexico didn\u2019t embark on a borrowing spree, while tough monetary policy kept inflation from getting out of hand. But in the last six months, AMLO has created what might be another buying opportunity by scaring investors once more. This is how Mexican stocks have fared since his inauguration day, in dollar terms, compared to the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Markets index:After bracing for Mexico to become an uninvestable wasteland, and then watching the country sell off during the early months of the pandemic, anyone who bought Mexican stocks in the summer of 2020 had a great four-year run, during which the index gained 170% (compared to 132% for the S&P 500). Disaster emphatically avoided. But the Bolsa has dropped more than 25% from its high since April.There was a similar pattern in the currency. AMLO succeeded in becoming the first president since the peso started to float in the early 1970s who left office with the currency stronger against the dollar than when he arrived. But again, a reverse has turned this into a close call, when at one point he was managing a superpeso: Some of this is bad luck. The peso was driven in great part by carry traders, parking in the currency with funds borrowed at rock-bottom interest rates in Japanese yen. When Japan\u2019s rates rose and the yen rallied in the summer, heavy selling of the peso resulted. But much of Mexico\u2019s damage is self-inflicted.The peso\u2019s decline unraveled in three phases. First, it grew obvious that Sheinbaum was going to win, accompanied by a prized \u201csuper-majority\u201d in Congress. This gives her Morena party far greater freedom of action. For investors, that\u2019s an unwelcome development. Next, the yen carry trade unwound. And then in September, AMLO used Morena\u2019s overwhelming dominance in Congress, which took office a month before his departure, to force through constitutional reforms including a contentious switch to the direct election of judges.Mexico\u2019s constitution suffers from too many checks and not enough balances, and the nation is vitiated by a weak rule of law. When underpaid judges take charge of big bankruptcy cases in which foreign creditors stand to suffer, international investors lose confidence. There\u2019s need for reform. But elected judges, at a time when one party has a very comfortable majority, opens the way for a politicized judiciary that enables the executive. That could easily be abused and is a step in the wrong direction. Moody\u2019s warned last week that it could inhibit investments and directly affect Mexico\u2019s credit rating.Two weeks ago, Ernesto Zedillo, president from 1994 to 2000, launched an in a speech to the International Bar Association\u2019s annual conference, saying the constitutional reforms were an \u201congoing atrocity\u201d that would \u201cdestroy the Judicial Branch and, with it, bury Mexican democracy and what remains of its fragile rule of law.\u201d Zedillo is a politician, and his words should be interpreted with caution. But he has credibility as the president who, after 72 years of uninterrupted one-party rule, oversaw a fair election and allowed the opposition to succeed him. Having kept out of politics since leaving office, his intervention was emphatic: The next complication for Sheinbaum will be the US election. As American companies shorten supply chains and accede to political pressure to withdraw from China, Mexico is positioned to benefit. But that won\u2019t happen if the next president puts extra tariffs on goods from Mexico. Most concerning here, and damaging for confidence in the whole economy, was the decision of Tesla CEO Elon Musk to postpone work on a projected new \u201cgigafactory\u201d in Monterrey. \u201cI think we need to see what happens with the election,\u201d he said. \u201cTrump has said he will impose tariffs on vehicles produced in Mexico. So it does not make sense to invest heavily in Mexico if that is going to happen.\u201dSheinbaum, like her predecessor, is pragmatic and doesn\u2019t want to preside over a crisis. Particularly if Donald Trump loses north of the border, there\u2019s a chance of an AMLO-style relief rally. But investors will be less inclined now to give her administration the benefit of the doubt. A happy 100th birthday to Jimmy Carter! It\u2019s amazing, and rather wonderful, that he is around to celebrate the landmark. The longest-lived president in history has, thankfully, survived to witness his reputation recover. The current horrors in the Middle East have made his enduring achievement at Camp David all the more impressive, while even on the economy, the former Republican senator that Carter deserves much of the credit for deregulation that went to Ronald Reagan.Moreover, it\u2019s remarkable to discover that Carter was born the day after , who was brought up 200 miles away in Alabama. There\u2019s a fantastic centenary tribute to Capote by Ted Gioia . It\u2019s worth reading in full, but I\u2019ll share one Capote tidbit that made my jaw drop: More From Bloomberg Opinion: Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .<\/pre>\n<\/p>\n
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