{"id":2500,"date":"2024-10-03T08:16:23","date_gmt":"2024-10-03T00:16:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2500"},"modified":"2024-10-03T08:16:23","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T00:16:23","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e4%b8%ad%e7%b4%a7%e5%bc%a0%e5%8d%87%e7%ba%a7%ef%bc%9a%e5%8c%97%e4%ba%ac%e6%a0%b8%e5%af%bc%e5%bc%b9%e8%af%95%e5%b0%84%e9%98%b4%e5%bd%b1%e7%ac%bc%e7%bd%a9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2500","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u4e2d\u7d27\u5f20\u5347\u7ea7\uff1a\u5317\u4eac\u6838\u5bfc\u5f39\u8bd5\u5c04\u9634\u5f71\u7b3c\u7f69"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u66f4\u591a\u6765\u81ea Bloomberg Opinion \u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a**\u3002\u6216\u8005\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba2\u9605 ** \u6765\u83b7\u53d6\u66f4\u591a\u5185\u5bb9\u3002 <\/p>\n

\n

\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>US-China Tensions: Beijing Missile Test Casts a Nuclear Shadow<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-30
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

China\u2019s decision to  an intercontinental ballistic missile as global leaders  at the United Nations General Assembly in New York was no coincidence. Beijing was showing off: It wants the world, and in particular Washington, to know about its growing atomic power. This is believed to be the first time in four decades that China has  an ICBM into international waters. In this instance, the Ministry of National Defense informed \u201crelevant countries,\u201d according to a report in . The US confirmed it had received  of the Sept. 25 test, with Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh saying it was \u201ca good thing\u201d because it \u201creduces the risks of any misperception and miscalculation.\u201d Continuing with advanced notifications will be critical to preventing dangerous misunderstandings between the superpowers.Asia has become more dangerous with this missile launch. Countries will likely boost their nuclear arsenals to keep up with China. While Russia and the US hold  90% of the globe\u2019s nuclear weapons, Beijing is ramping up its capacity  than predicted. According to the , the arsenal of the world\u2019s second-largest economy\u2019s  from 410 warheads in 2023, to 500 this year. The US Defense Department  that by the end of this decade, China will probably have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads, in line with President Xi Jinping\u2019s goal of a \u201cworld class\u201d military by 2049.   That\u2019s why the alert was so important, , senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore\u2019s Nanyang Technological University, told me. \u201cIt shows that Beijing is aware of the potential for miscalculation, and may be seeking ways to reduce risks.\u201d  For the first time, Washington  two major nuclear-armed rivals \u2014 Russia and China \u2014 that are united in their mutual antagonism of the American-led global order. The Chinese want the US to  the legitimacy of their political system, and respect their core interests. Among those are red lines on , the democratic self-ruled island that China claims as its own, and Beijing\u2019s assertions that it owns almost  of the South China Sea.There are domestic pressures as well. Reports in January that China\u2019s Rocket Force,  for building up the nuclear arsenal, was  with corruption, were hugely embarrassing for the Chinese Communist Party. This test was also about signaling to citizens its ability to keep the nation safe, and dispelling criticism about leadership and legitimacy. History provides some useful lessons for an off-ramp. During the first Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union  the concept of  \u2014 the idea that they were both exposed to the immense damage the other\u2019s atomic weapons could inflict \u2014 as a way to avoid a nuclear war.It is not an exact parallel, but the 1963 US-Russian , created after the  in 1962, could be a useful guide. Both  the brink of a nuclear strike, but there was a recognition that when two great powers have deadly weapons capable of immense devastation, they needed a reliable way to communicate. A similar arrangement between Beijing and Washington was set up , but it hasn\u2019t worked so well, even in particularly fraught moments. In February last year, the US shot down an alleged  that it believed was a surveillance device, and subsequently tried to contact the Chinese defense ministry. Beijing declined. That\u2019s led to accusations the hotline is \u201c.\u201d Its  is critical to avoid  outcomes that neither side wants. Restarting  talks is also a good sign. Those should continue and become more regular. The relationship has to move from mutual mistrust to one of shared global responsibility. For Beijing, the fact that the US is the only country to  nuclear weapons on an enemy and rival, is top of mind. For Washington, China\u2019s lack of  in its attempts to  its nuclear prowess is suspicious, and speaks of ill-intent. Both sides should admit they have perception gaps about the other.  For the US, recognizing what matters to Xi and addressing China\u2019s insecurities would also help. This is not to gloss over its visible goals of nuclear advancement, or to capitulate to Beijing\u2019s assertiveness in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait. If China wants to be seen as a true leader in the Global South, it should explain what its aims are, with a view to getting toward a more stable nuclear relationship, and keeping the region safer.Otherwise an atomic shadow will hang over any future conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Taipei has  of precisely that: On Sunday, the island\u2019s defense ministry said it was on \u201calert\u201d after noting \u201cmultiple waves\u201d of missile firing deep in inland China. Washington can take heart that even as Beijing modernizes, it is still nowhere near the US\u2019s capabilities \u2014 yet.  that the People\u2019s Liberation Army\u2019s most advanced nuclear attack submarine is believed to have sunk earlier this year while sitting at a pier in the city of Wuhan, emerged shortly after China\u2019s missile launch.Still, it is not enough to simply rely on Beijing\u2019s failings. The direction of travel is clear. Preparing for a more heavily nuclear-armed Asia is wiser than hoping the problem will go away. The alternative would be to face unthinkable consequences. We shouldn\u2019t wait for that.   More From Bloomberg Opinion:  Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to     .<\/pre>\n
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