{"id":2440,"date":"2024-10-03T04:27:16","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T20:27:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2440"},"modified":"2024-10-03T04:27:16","modified_gmt":"2024-10-02T20:27:16","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e4%b8%8e%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%88%ba%e6%bf%80%e4%b8%be%e6%8e%aa%e6%9a%82%e6%9c%aa%e8%8e%b7%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6%e5%85%85%e5%88%86%e8%ae%a4%e5%90%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2440","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u523a\u6fc0\u4e3e\u63aa\u6682\u672a\u83b7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5145\u5206\u8ba4\u540c"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5168\u7403\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u52a8\u6001\u7a81\u7136\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u7ed9\u5e02\u573a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u9884\u671f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u5bf9\u6b64\u5c1a\u6301\u89c2\u671b\u6001\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8d27\u5e01\u3001\u8d22\u653f\u53ca\u76d1\u7ba1\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u63d0\u632f\u4f4e\u8ff7\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u574a\u95f4\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\u7684\u671f\u5f85\u6fc0\u589e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u5e02\u8fde\u7eed\u98d9\u5347\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u79ef\u6781\u60c5\u7eea\u5728\u5468\u4e00\u7ee7\u7eed\u6269\u5c55\uff1a\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e09\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u5ba3\u5e03\u653e\u677e\u8d2d\u623f\u9650\u5236\u540e\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u94c1\u77ff\u77f3\u4ef7\u683c\u663e\u8457\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u5bf9\u6b64\uff0cLa Financiere de L’Echiquier \u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4e3b\u7ba1\u8bc4\u4ef7\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5e74\u5ea6\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u3002\u201d\u201c\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u5c06\u8ddf\u968f\u5e02\u573a\u8d70\u52bf\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u6b63\u7ecf\u5386\u7740\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u4e3a\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u9006\u8f6c\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u8fde\u7eed\u4e5d\u5929\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u6caa\u6df1300\u6307\u6570\u81ea9\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u4ee5\u6765\u6da8\u5e45\u9ad8\u8fbe27%\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0cSociete Generale SA \u7684\u8de8\u8d44\u4ea7\u52a8\u91cf\u8ddf\u8e2a\u6307\u6570\u6500\u5347\u81f3\u903e\u4e00\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u4eec\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9884\u671f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a811\u6708\u5c06\u8fdb\u884c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b2150\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9884\u8ba1\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u572810\u6708\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u5ea6\u4e0b\u8c03\u5229\u7387\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u5728\u51e0\u5468\u524d\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0d\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u4e3b\u6d41\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4f46\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u9762\u4e34\u9700\u6c42\u6216\u96c7\u4f63\u610f\u5916\u4e0b\u6ed1\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u4ec5\u5269\u4e94\u4e2a\u661f\u671f\u5c31\u5c06\u5c18\u57c3\u843d\u5b9a\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u969c\u788d\u3002\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u4e5f\u5a01\u80c1\u5230\u6574\u4f53\u4e50\u89c2\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5f53\u524d\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u201dNomura Holdings Inc. \u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u9886\u5148\u4e8e\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4ecd\u7136\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u62b1\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u201d <\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u98ce\u9669\u5305\u62ec\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6076\u5316\u3001\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3001\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u590d\u82cf\u4ee5\u53ca\u9009\u4e3e\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u9650\u5236\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8d62\u5f97\u5927\u9009\u5e76\u5f15\u53d1\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u91cd\u7a0e\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u201c\u6ede\u80c0\u201d\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u660e\u663e\u63d0\u632f\u4e86\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u4e3e\u63aa\u5c06\u88ab\u9700\u8981\u4ee5\u6539\u53d8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6001\u52bf\u3002\u201c\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u6f6e\u540e\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e0e\u6e29\u548c\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u7684\u56de\u5f52\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u6f2b\u957f\u7684\u3001\u96be\u8d70\u7684\u6218\u5f79\u3002\u201dMorgan Stanley \u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6307\u51fa\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u5468\u4e00\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u91c7\u8d2d\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u6307\u6570\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63ed\u793a\u51fa\u5f53\u524d\u5f62\u52bf\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b98\u65b9\u5236\u9020\u4e1aPMI\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e94\u4e2a\u6708\u5904\u4e8e\u6536\u7f29\u533a\u57df\uff0c\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\u6307\u6570\u66f4\u662f\u4e0b\u6ed1\u4e86\u3002\u5c55\u671b\u672a\u6765\uff0cBloomberg \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u653f\u7b56\u523a\u6fc0\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6062\u590d\u5230\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u8d27\u5e01\u5bbd\u677e\u5c06\u4fc3\u4f7f\u589e\u957f\u63d0\u53471-1.1\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u5ef6\u7eed\u56db\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u4e4b\u4e45\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8fd1\u6765\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\u60c5\u51b5\u6709\u6240\u6539\u5584\u30029\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u5c55\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u5065\u5eb7\u4f46\u8d8b\u4e8e\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u5728\u6e29\u548c\u843d\u5730\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u7531\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f\u652f\u6301\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u90fd\u5c06\u5bf9\u6b64\u8868\u793a\u6b22\u8fce\uff1b\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8feb\u4f7f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u518d\u6b21\u6539\u53d8\u7b56\u7565\u2014\u2014\u6b63\u5982\u4ed6\u5728\u53bb\u5e7412\u6708\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u5f53\u4fe1\u53f7\u8868\u660e\u5373\u5c06\u8f6c\u5411\u5bfc\u81f4\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u6d3b\u52a8\u6fc0\u589e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u2018\u4e0d\u51b7\u4e0d\u70ed\u2019\u6765\u5f62\u5bb9\u3002\u201dApollo Management \u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5982\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u4f46\u6545\u4e8b\u5e76\u672a\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u8fc7\u5ea6\u3001\u5feb\u901f\u5730\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u518d\u6b21\u8fc7\u70ed\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u9ec4\u91d1\u822c\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u80a1\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0e\u6caa\u6df1300\u6307\u6570\u7ea625\u500d\u548c15\u500d\u7684\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u6bd4\u8f83\uff08\u6839\u636e Bloomberg \u6570\u636e\uff09\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4f30\u503c\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u5c06\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8d85\u51fa\u9884\u671f\u7684\u964d\u606f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u80a1\u7968\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u6602\u4ef7\u683c\u8d62\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u5e2e\u52a9\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8f83\u4f4e\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\u3002\u201d\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u8bf4\u9053\uff0c\u201c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6570\u636e\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u6307\u6807\u6539\u5584\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u80fd\u591f\u6301\u7eed\u5230\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u53ca\u4ee5\u540e\u3002\u201d\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u4ece\u88ab\u6253\u51fb\u540e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u5927\u5e45\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u884c\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u4e00\u5207\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u90fd\u4e25\u91cd\u770b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u4f30\u503c\u6781\u4f4e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u62a5\u590d\u6027\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u201dEurizon SLJ Capital \u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b9e\u65bd\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u4ee5\u53ca\u6cb9\u4ef7\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u8868\u73b0\u90fd\u5c06\u975e\u5e38\u597d\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u9884\u8ba1\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u5e02\u5c06\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u65f6\u5f3a\u52bf\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5185\u5bb9\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e4b\u95f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u53ca\u524d\u666f\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff1a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5185\u5bb9\u4e3a\u57fa\u4e8e\u539f\u6587\u7684\u7ffb\u8bd1\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u4fdd\u6301\u6587\u5b57\u98ce\u683c\u3001\u8bed\u5883\u548c\u539f\u610f\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u8868\u8fbe\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u9002\u5f53\u8c03\u6574\u4ee5\u9002\u5e94\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bfb\u8005\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u4e60\u60ef\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u4fe1\u606f\u5b8c\u6574\u4e14\u51c6\u786e\u65e0\u9057\u6f0f\u3002 <\/p>\n

\n

\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>Market-Boosting Moves in US, China Yet to Convince Economists<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-30
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

A stronger-than-expected pivot to stimulus in the world\u2019s two biggest economies has brightened the market outlook. For economists, the jury is still out.  China\u2019s barrage of monetary, fiscal and regulatory easing to boost the ailing property market, alongside expectations for deeper interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and peers, sent stocks soaring worldwide last week. The bullish mood continued Monday after three of China\u2019s biggest cities eased home-buying curbs, sending shares and iron ore spiking higher.\u201cThis is one of the turning points of the year,\u201d , head of trading at La Financiere de L\u2019Echiquier, said of the US and Chinese policy moves. \u201cI have the feeling now that everyone is going to go with the flow.\u201d Chinese stocks extended one of their most remarkable turnarounds in history, soaring for a ninth day on Monday and pushing the benchmark CSI 300 Index\u2019s gains to 27% from a mid-September low. A Societe Generale SA index tracking cross-asset momentum jumped to the highest in more than a year.In the bond market, traders are increasingly moving to price in a second 50-basis point rate cut from the Fed in November as well as another reduction in rates from the European Central Bank in October, shifts that were previously not base cases just a few weeks ago.The bulls could still come unstuck by sudden slumps in demand or hiring, with Friday\u2019s US jobs report a near-term test of their will. A disruptive presidential election that\u2019s now just five weeks away looms as a bigger potential hurdle, while tensions in the Middle East remain a risk to the rosy outlook. \u201cMarkets versus economics could be quite different right now,\u201d said , head of global markets research at Nomura Holdings Inc. While the market outlook has clearly improved over the past two weeks \u201cfor the economic outlook, it\u2019s less clear cut. Of course, markets are meant to preempt, but for economists the jury is still out.\u201dFor the US, risks include a deteriorating labor market, potential for  to widen, a revival in inflation, and an election that could result in expansionary fiscal policies that limit the Fed\u2019s scope to cut rates as much as markets are anticipating. It could also result in stagflation if a victory by Donald Trump leads to steep tariffs on Chinese and other imports, Subbaraman said. As for China, while the stimulus is clearly buoying the stock market, more fiscal measures will be needed to shift the economic narrative. Morgan Stanley\u2019s China economist  says even after the recent stimulus blitz, \u201ca return to benign inflation and sustainable growth is likely to be a long, drawn-out battle.\u201dMonday\u2019s purchasing managers indexes underscored the , with China\u2019s official manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction territory for a fifth month and a private measure deteriorating. Looking ahead, Bloomberg Economics\u2019  sees an increasing chance for growth to  to a faster path on the back of the recent policy stimulus. Monetary easing could raise growth by as much as 1-1.1 percentage points over four quarters, she said. In the US, meantime, recent data has been . Friday\u2019s September jobs report is expected to show a healthy, yet moderating, labor market.While a soft landing aided by Fed rate cuts would be welcomed by markets and economists alike, there\u2019s also the risk that such an outcome forces chair  to change course again \u2014 as he did last December when a pivot signal reignited activity in the first quarter. \u201cCurrent economic conditions can be best described as \u2018Goldilocks,\u2019\u201d said , chief economist at Apollo Management. \u201cNot too hot, and not too cold. But the story doesn\u2019t end here. The risk with cutting interest rates too much too quickly is that the economy becomes too hot again.\u201dFor investors, equity valuations may come into play even if the Goldilocks conditions do continue. After a powerful two-year rally, stocks on the S&P 500 are trading at around 25 times earnings, versus 15 times on China\u2019s benchmark CSI-300 index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. \u201cThe Fed\u2019s larger-than-expected rate cut can buy more time for high-quality stocks to remain expensive and even help lower-quality cyclical stocks stabilize in the near term, especially after China\u2019s recent actions,\u201d said , chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. \u201cHowever, I believe labor data and other growth indicators need to improve to justify these conditions continuing into year-end and beyond.\u201dThat may mean there\u2019s more upside for China\u2019s beaten down stocks, especially if policymakers there keep rolling out stimulus measures. \u201cInvestors are so underweight everything Chinese and Chinese equities are extremely undervalued that a serious rally is entirely possible,\u201d said , chief executive officer at Eurizon SLJ Capital. \u201cIn general, risk assets ought to do very well, with the Fed cutting rates, China embarking on monetary and fiscal stimulus, and oil prices being low. After the US election, I expect global equities to rally powerfully into year-end.\u201d<\/pre>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/div>
\r\n