{"id":2396,"date":"2024-10-03T00:36:02","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T16:36:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2396"},"modified":"2024-10-03T00:36:02","modified_gmt":"2024-10-02T16:36:02","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e7%81%ab%e7%88%86%e5%8a%bf%e5%a4%b4%e6%8e%a9%e7%9b%96%e6%b7%b1%e5%b1%82%e9%9a%90%e5%bf%a7%e5%bc%95%e5%8f%91%e5%85%b3%e6%b3%a8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2396","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u706b\u7206\u52bf\u5934\u63a9\u76d6\u6df1\u5c42\u9690\u5fe7\u5f15\u53d1\u5173\u6ce8"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China Stock Euphoria Takes Hold as Traders Overlook Deeper Woes<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-28
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

Chinese stock bulls have been burnt many times before but the current wave of euphoria is so strong that they\u2019re throwing caution to the wind.  The CSI 300  has just capped its best week since November 2008, thanks to a barrage of monetary stimulus and  from the Politburo to boost fiscal spending. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.  \u201cthis time is different,\u201d lending support to an emerging view that the rally may prove more sustainable. Morgan Stanley  another 10% upside.  Yet how long this confidence will last hinges a lot on the scale and speed of follow-up policy action. Any weakness in spending during the Golden Week holiday may also shift focus back to China\u2019s consumer malaise and an entrenched property crisis that has pushed the country to the cusp of a deflationary spiral.     \u201cThe recent announcements from the Politburo echo the sentiment of Mario Draghi\u2019s \u2018whatever it takes\u2019 speech a decade ago, underscoring a strong resolve to support the economy,\u201d said , chief executive officer at Straits Investment Management in Singapore, referring to the former European Central Bank president\u2019s pledge to preserve the common currency during the 2012 debt crisis. \u201cThis China rally is very strong.\u201d Measures released this week include interest rate , freeing-up of cash for banks, billions of dollars of liquidity support for the stock market, and a vow to end the decline in property prices.   The sweeping package has pushed the CSI 300  up by 15.7% this week, putting the benchmark for mainland shares firmly in positive territory for the year. The Hang Seng China Enterprises  rose for an 11th straight session, a run of gains that was last seen in 2018. Eight of 12 investors in a Bloomberg survey this week said this will be a turning point for a long-term rally, while four saw it as a short-term rebound. The optimists picked tech shares as a top bet, compared to the market\u2019s earlier preference for more defensive stocks. It\u2019s a remarkable shift from earlier this month, when stocks  to more than a five-year low amid a deepening property slump, weak consumption and geopolitical headwinds. Economists are now more hopeful that China can reach the growth target of about 5% expansion for the year, and see chances of a larger fiscal stimulus to accompany interest-rate cuts.  Read more: \u201cThe Politburo communication and market\u2019s positive response to it suggest that the authorities have seized the initiative against China bears through rather forceful forward guidance on fiscal policy and real estate sector rescue,\u201d said , senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier Singapore Ltd. Investors betting on more fiscal measures will be buying even if they remain anxious about long-term fundamentals, he added.   But for those who\u2019ve experienced multiple false dawns, there are plenty of reasons to be cautious.  The current rally is akin to that seen when China  its Covid Zero policy in late 2022. Back then, the CSI 300 rose to the brink of a bull market before collapsing again. Shares rallied more than 15% from February to May this year as Beijing tightened the screws on short selling and quant trades and state funds actively intervened, before resuming their slide as earnings failed to recover. More fundamentally, investors remain wary of increasing exposure materially after China\u2019s yearslong crackdown on the private sector and tensions with the West altered their perception of the country\u2019s investability.    \u201cThe key risk is a continuation of policies which discourage large entrepreneurs from investing and growing their companies,\u201d said , chairman of Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund. \u201cIt is important for there to be encouragement of innovation and private investment.\u201dBut for those hungry to recoup years of losses, this is the moment to chase gains. \u201cFor a trader now is not the time to ask whether it is structural or technical,\u201d said , chief economist for Grow Investment Group. \u201cThis is a very easily tradable rebound and will lead to not only China but a global risk-on rally.\u201d    <\/pre>\n
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