{"id":2382,"date":"2024-10-03T00:31:34","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T16:31:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2382"},"modified":"2024-10-03T00:31:34","modified_gmt":"2024-10-02T16:31:34","slug":"%e5%bd%ad%e5%8d%9a%e6%96%b0%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e8%ae%ba%e5%9d%9b%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e5%af%b9%e6%88%bf%e5%9c%b0%e4%ba%a7%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%e4%bd%9c%e5%87%ba%e9%87%8d%e5%a4%a7%e6%89%bf%e8%af%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2382","title":{"rendered":"\u5f6d\u535a\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8bba\u575b\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5371\u673a\u4f5c\u51fa\u91cd\u5927\u627f\u8bfa\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u6311\u6218"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\n

\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>Bloomberg New Economy: China Cries Uncle With Big Pledge on Property Crisis<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-28
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

China\u2019s leadership, after showing  concern about the nation\u2019s sluggish growth in recent months, finally reached what Goldman Sachs termed its \u201cpain threshold.\u201dWith  a raft of interest-rate cuts, a new facility to prop up the stock market and a plan to recapitalize banks, policymakers this week decisively shifted gears in an apparent effort to ensure the government\u2019s 2024 growth target of about 5% is reached. The first step to solving a problem, as the adage goes, is to . And the official statement following the Communist Party Politburo gathering on Thursday acknowledged \u201cnew issues and problems.\u201d Arguably the most important part of the announcement was a pledge to get the real estate market \u201cto stop declining and stabilize.\u201d\u201cIt\u2019s one thing to lay out plans in bold statements, and another to put effective measures into action,\u201d David Qu and Eric Zhu at Bloomberg Economics cautioned. \u201cThere\u2019s clear upside risk\u201d to the growth outlook, but the duo said that \u201cwe\u2019ll assess the policies as they are implemented.\u201d In other words, it\u2019s not certain that the  this week will be sustained.China\u2019s \u2014now in its fourth year\u2014has weighed on consumer confidence and hurt domestic spending, so a real bailout would be a game-changer. The latest set of data showcased that, despite many announcements by both Beijing and local governments stretching back at least two years, housing remains mired in an epic slump.The value of new-home sales by the top 100 developers tumbled almost 27% in August from a year before. Last August, they were down about 34%. In August 2022, sales slumped 33% year-on-year. In other words, the market has been cratering for some time now.Perhaps as important, prices continue to decline, and the . That\u2019s after a powerful upsurge in prices during China\u2019s period of rapid economic growth. Falling property values undermine household confidence, particularly against a backdrop where real estate makes up a notable share of wealth.The irony is, China\u2019s property crisis was one that policymakers manufactured. It began in 2020, when regulators set limits\u2014dubbed \u2014for developers seeking to borrow more. The intention was in part to contain prices that were becoming increasingly unaffordable, and in part to address financial-stability risks.Property companies had relied on leverage to scoop up large land banks that they would then develop. Practice was to sell housing units prior to finishing them, with the revenue paying for the construction. Once access to fresh borrowing dried up, the system broke down.\u201cI don\u2019t know if the world has ever seen such a self-induced property implosion,\u201d Stephen Jen, chief executive of Eurizon SLJ Capital, wrote in a note to clients this week. \u201cAll of the other cases of property corrections were involuntary.\u201dOfficials\u2019 actions up to now have relied on local governments taking action. Measures included setting up funding mechanisms to encourage them to buy unsold properties, potentially turning some buildings into \u2014a system that\u2019s worked well on a small scale in Singapore.But the trouble has been local authorities remain , having running up debts in part to pay for a draconian Covid containment infrastructure. They\u2019ve also seen a decline in revenue due to the property slump, after having long relied on sales of .To top it off, the economics of participating in bailout schemes were a hard sell amid widespread expectation of further price declines. In May, China\u2019s central government urged more than 200 cities to buy unsold homes to ease oversupply. By earlier this month,  the call.But once President Xi Jinping has declared something a priority, that tends to mobilize things in China\u2019s single-party state. Xi oversaw the Communist Party Politburo meeting this week that unveiled the primacy of shoring up the economy.\u201cA change in the view from the very top is important. The housing market desperately needs more actions from the top to undo the self-inflicted damage,\u201d Jen said.Some developers already are jumping on the , pledging to make homebuyers whole should prices fall between contract signing and property delivery dates.But most economists aren\u2019t yet rushing to rewrite their economic growth forecasts until it\u2019s clear what sort of fiscal resources Beijing is prepared to deploy.Market speculation has centered on the potential for a  ($285 billion) injection. But one thing to keep in mind is the context of a contraction in budget spending (as noted in ) so far this year. Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis SA, estimated China may need to unleash over 3 trillion yuan just to fill .Beyond addressing China\u2019s property crisis, there remains a  on value-added manufacturing rather than the services sector that could do most to provide jobs and income.The longer-term picture \u201cstill looks the same\u2014 \u201d Qu and Zhu at Bloomberg Economics wrote. \u201cStructural forces will keep considerable downward pressure on growth.\u201d <\/pre>\n
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