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\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u8868\u73b0\u4e5f\u672a\u80fd\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u63d0\u4f9b\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u539f\u56e0\u5462\uff1f\u8981\u4e48\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u7531\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u524d\u666f\u65e0\u5173\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u5f20\u56fe\u8868\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u81ea\u4ece1929\u5e74\u5927\u5d29\u6e83\u4ee5\u6765\u8d35\u91d1\u5c5e\u76f8\u5bf9\u8868\u73b0\u60c5\u51b5\uff1a<\/p>\n

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\u9ec4\u91d1\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u5b9e\u7269\u9700\u6c42\u6765\u81ea\u592e\u884c\u3002\u9ad8\u76db\u9884\u4f30\u57282023\u5e74\u672b\u524d\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5c06\u6536\u8d2d\u8d85\u8fc73000\u5428\u9ec4\u91d1\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u3002\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5e93\u5b58\u589e\u957f\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n

DataTrek\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5c3c\u53e4\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u79d1\u65af\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u6301\u6709\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u52a1\u66f4\u4e3a\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u65e0\u6cd5\u88ab\u6ca1\u6536\u6216\u5236\u88c1\u3002\u8fd9\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u9884\u793a\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fd0\u8f6c\u826f\u597d\u65f6\uff0c\u4f4e\u4f30\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u53d8\u5f97\u76f8\u5bf9\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u9ec4\u91d1\u662f\u5426\u5728\u53d1\u51fa\u8b66\u544a\u4fe1\u53f7\u5462\uff1fDataTrek\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b100\u6307\u6570\u901a\u5e38\u6bd4\u9ec4\u91d1\u8868\u73b0\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u7ecf\u5e38\u9ad8\u51fa20\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u6216\u66f4\u591a\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5185\u3002\u4f8b\u5916\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u57282016\u5e74\u30012019-2020\u5e74\u548c2022\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u8870\u9000\u62c5\u5fe7\u88ab\u63d0\u9ad8\u6216\u8005\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51fa\u73b0\u6536\u7f29\u3002<\/p>\n

\u90a3\u4e48\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5728\u4eba\u4eec\u666e\u904d\u9884\u671f\u201c\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\u201d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u518d\u6b21\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e86\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u6307\u6570\uff1f\u79d1\u65af\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u4e2d\u9ec4\u91d1\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u9884\u8b66\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u63a8\u52a8\u4ef7\u683c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002Xs.com\u7684\u96f7\u7eb3\u00b7\u683c\u5c14\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f3\u7ea63.73%\u4ee5\u53ca\u75b2\u8f6f\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u4f7f\u5f97\u6301\u6709\u9ec4\u91d1\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u5177\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4ecd\u5e94\u4fdd\u6301\u8c28\u614e\uff1a \u2014\u2014\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u963f\u6bd4<\/p>\n

\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6279\u7531\u6b4c\u66f2\u81f4\u656c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5143\u7d20\u7684\u63a8\u8350\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8046\u542cBig Country\u4e50\u961f\u7684\u300aChina Girl\u300b\u3001Pete Townshend\u7684\u300aBreadline China\u300b\u3001Billie Holiday\uff08\u6216\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u4ed6\u7248\u672c\uff09\u7684\u300aChina Boy\u300b\u3001Fontaines D.C.\u7684\u300aWish I Was Sober, Just For Tonight\u300b\u3001\u89c6\u9891\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u300aChina Girl\u300b\u3001The Waterboys\u7684\u300aSilver Star\u300b\uff08\u6708\u4eae\u4e0d\u662f\u661f\u661f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6b4c\u4e2d\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5929\u4f53\u76f8\u5173\u53c2\u8003\uff09\u3001Champs\u7684\u300aStarlight\u300b\u6216King Crimson\u7684\u300aRed Shift\u300b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7235\u58eb\u7231\u597d\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u6b23\u8d4fJohn Coltrane\u7684\u300aChina\u300b\u3001Louis Armstrong\u7684\u300aMy Man, The King of China\u300b\uff08\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7248\u672c\uff09\u3001Wynton Marsalis\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u9996\u300aChina Girl\u300b\u3001Duke Ellington\u7684\u300aChina Gate\u300b\uff08\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\uff09\u4ee5\u53caMiles Davis\u7684\u300aChinese Wall\u300b\uff08\u5409\u4ed6\u7535\u97f3\u7248\uff01\uff09\uff0cChet Baker\u7684\u300aThe China Cat\u300b\u6216Charlie Parker\u7684\u300aChina Blues\u300b\u3002\u611f\u8c22\u6240\u6709\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u73cd\u5b9d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u795d\u5927\u5bb6\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6109\u5feb\u7684\u5468\u672b\u3002\u66f4\u591a\u4eceBloomberg Opinion\uff1a\u60f3\u8981\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591aBloomberg Opinion\uff1f <\/p>\n

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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>Markets Suddenly Trust China Again, Up to a Point<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-27
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

      To get John Authers' newsletter delivered directly to your inbox, sign up .         \u2022   It looks like global investors really trust .       \u2022   The jury is still out on whether this is a true .       \u2022    are the biggest beneficiaries of communist largesse so far.       \u2022    keeps setting new records, despite confidence in a soft landing.       \u2022   AND: Jazz musicians like  even more than the rest of us.Suddenly, a lot of people are placing a lot of trust in the Communist Party of China. On Thursday, the Politburo, headed by President Xi Jinping, held an unscheduled meeting and then  that effectively amplified the monetary policy stimulus announced by the central bank earlier this week. On markets, at least, the leadership\u2019s intervention had a big impact, and it got bigger the closer you were to China. The CSI-300, an index of the biggest mainland A-shares traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has rallied by more than 10% this week, and it\u2019s nearly back to its high for the year:That rally extended Friday after the central bank confirmed it was cutting the  that  banks must hold, with the CSI-300 gaining another 2.7% in the morning session. This must of course be put in the context of a biblically awful run for Chinese equities since a brief boomlet ended early in 2021. The index fell more than 50% after that \u2014 although it\u2019s still noticeable that the CSI-300 is now further above its 200-day moving average than at any time since then, which does suggest a significant reversal:It\u2019s also had a real impact on equities beyond China\u2019s borders, helping in particular to spur excitement outside of America. FTSE\u2019s index of all world markets excluding the US has rallied within a whisker of its high from 2021: This has led to some upheavals among riskier assets. Chris Verrone of Strategas Research Partners points out that the Emerging Markets Internet ETF (known EMQQ) is now slightly ahead of QQQ, the juggernaut ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100, for the year so far. This week\u2019s leap is startling: For another very direct impact, European luxury stocks regarded as a direct play on China\u2019s newly wealthy :After Tuesday\u2019s very unusual press conference by the People\u2019s Bank of China to announce a range of monetary policy developments, China-related assets had a big day, even though the immediate reaction from economists and investment analysts was that it was too little and too late to make much difference. Thursday\u2019s market action, by contrast, suggests that investors perceive the Politburo intervention to have made a real and substantive change. \u201cBy itself, the monetary policy stimulus was merely a signal that things are worse than people realize,\u201d says TS Lombard\u2019s  Freya Beamish. \u201cToday\u2019s rare surprise Politburo meeting provided few details but sent a strong signal that the fiscal authorities too are on board.\u201dSo, if you hold Chinese assets, you\u2019re probably much happier than you were last week. But what exactly has the Politburo changed? There are no numbers in its statement, but there are also fewer words than usual. Several analysts pointed out that verbiage about  had been excised. It underwrote attempts to boost the stock market and put a floor under the housing market, along the lines that the PBOC had already announced. What perhaps mattered most, beyond Xi\u2019s imprimatur for those policies, was a series of declarations of intent, including (according to the Google Translate rendering of the document that can be found ) commitments to: This is significant, arguably, because it shows Xi gets China\u2019s crucial need is to prod consumers to start buying stuff again, and suggests that some old-fashioned  will be tried to boost demand. Bloomberg News\u2019 revelations that the government is considering a  for banks, and Reuters news that  will be issued, further raised confidence that the government means business.This doesn\u2019t necessarily convince the skeptics that China\u2019s economy is about to turn around, but it has prompted them to buy Chinese assets. Peter Tchir of Academy Securities said that boosting the consumer was a sensible way to try to tide the economy through the long process of transitioning away from reliance on building goods for foreign companies:Marko Papic of BCA Research described this as Beijing\u2019s \u201cwhatever it takes\u201d moment. This is because China has reached the point often seen in real estate and market crises where policymakers realize that austerity won\u2019t work to lift them out of the trap, and they lose their squeamishness about being seen to bail people out. \u201cEffectively, Beijing has reached a point where the policy focus shifts from guarding against moral hazard to guarding against political risks,\u201d he said.However, Shehzad Qazi of China Beige Book suggested that comparisons to the , when the then-head of the European Central Bank promised to spare nothing to rescue the euro, were overdone.There are enough ironies in the situation to sink the Titanic. World capital markets leap on a diktat from the Politburo of the world\u2019s largest communist state; European makers of jewellery and over-expensive handbags benefit more from those communists than anyone else; and the capital establishment is now excited because the communists look as though they\u2019re going to get serious about Keynesianism and a welfare state. Which aforesaid communists previously didn\u2019t seem to think was a good idea. But it\u2019s where we are. China is determined not to allow either housing or share prices to fall further, which removes tail risk from global markets. That\u2019s good. It also looks as though it will have a serious go at putting life into its economy, which would bolster everyone\u2019s chances of a soft landing. It\u2019s done a good job of western-style message management that has revived western confidence. The challenges facing its economy remain, but the forex market bottom line is clear that Beijing needed to act in a way that the Federal Reserve perhaps didn\u2019t. As Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research commented, \u201cWhen the Fed surprised the market with a bigger-than-expected interest rate cut, the US dollar fell; when the PBOC and the Chinese government surprised the market with a bigger-than-expected stimulus, the renminbi rose.\u201dGold\u2019s  continues. It topped $2,660 an ounce in Thursday trading, the highest price on record for a commodity that has been prized for millennia. But while that\u2019s impressive, it\u2019s also a little strange. Bullion\u2019s rally in the past week has coincided with the Fed\u2019s half-point rate cut. It\u2019s usual for the price of safe-haven assets like gold to appreciate as the Fed eases policy. As a hedge against economic downturns and uncertainties, there\u2019s a justifiable cause to view the recent surge as a sharp disconnect with growth projections or outlook. Apart from China, the global economic picture looks pretty decent, with recession forecasts no longer the base case for developed and emerging economies. The battle against post-pandemic inflation , with central banks worldwide at various stages of easing cycles. This shouldn\u2019t be a conducive environment for a  to rally, and yet it continues to keep pace with the artificial intelligence-powered S&P 500:Obviously, more explanation is needed. Historically, the metal\u2019s strongest prices compared to the S&P 500 have coincided with the greatest periods of uncertainty \u2014 the Great Crash, the Middle Eastern crises of the 1970s, and the Global Financial Crisis. Now is at present nothing like such spikes. But stocks are also failing to outperform an asset that offers no yield. So what gives? Either the equities rally is overdone, or gold is being driven by factors that have little to do with skepticism around economic growth. Here\u2019s a chart tracking gold\u2019s relative performance, dating back to the Great Crash in 1929:Angeles Investment Advisors\u2019 veteran portfolio manager Michael Rosen agrees that it\u2019s hard to pinpoint the factors behind gold\u2019s run, although strong demand for physical gold, heightened geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming US elections could all have an impact. Gold\u2019s 30% year-to-date rise accelerated after the Fed\u2019s cuts and further easing is virtually a given. That would be supportive, but Bank of America researchers  suggest gold is overbought, and that prevailing price levels already discount deep Fed cuts:Gold\u2019s strong physical demand has come from central banks. BofA estimates that between 2022 and the end of this year, they\u2019ll have acquired over 3,000 tons, the fastest clip in history. The stockpiling has come mostly from outside the US, notably China. DataTrek Research\u2019s Nicholas Colas explains that bullion is a reasonable alternative to sovereign debt in terms of reserve holdings because it cannot be confiscated or sanctioned. That speaks to rising geopolitical risk, he says, but doesn\u2019t portend a near-term economic downturn.With the US economy humming along, it\u2019s easy to understate harbingers of recessions. Is it possible gold is flashing warning signs? This DataTrek chart shows the Nasdaq 100 routinely outperforming gold over the last decade, often by 20 percentage points or more over any given one-year period. The exceptions came in 2016, 2019\u20132020, and 2022, when recession concerns were elevated or a contraction materialized:Why, then, is gold beating the Nasdaq again, when everyone expects a soft landing? Colas says gold\u2019s continuing dominance over the last 12 months backs arguments that this is a recession warning that could justify further price increases. XS.com\u2019s Rania Gule adds that a fall in Treasury yields to about 3.73% and a weak dollar enhance gold\u2019s attractiveness, as holding it becomes less costly compared to investing in bonds. It still pays for investors to keep hold of the guardrails:   \u2014Richard AbbeyOne last consignment of songs inspired by . You could listen to Big Country\u2019s ,  by Pete Townshend,  by Billie Holiday (or ),  by Fontaines D.C., Video Killed the  by the Buggles, Randy Edelman\u2019s ,  by the Waterboys (OK, the moon isn\u2019t a star but there are umpteen celestial references in the song),  by Champs, or  by King Crimson. For the jazz-inclined, there\u2019s John Coltrane\u2019s , Louis Armstrong\u2019s (totally different) , yet another  by Wynton Marsalis, Duke Ellington\u2019s  (different again), and Miles Davis\u2019  (featuring  electric guitars!), Chet Baker\u2019s , or Charlie Parker\u2019s . Thanks for all the suggestions which have introduced me to some jewels. Have a great weekend. More From Bloomberg Opinion:  Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .<\/pre>\n
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