{"id":2228,"date":"2024-10-02T00:29:42","date_gmt":"2024-10-01T16:29:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2228"},"modified":"2024-10-02T00:29:42","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T16:29:42","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e4%b8%8e%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e4%b8%89%e5%8d%81%e5%b9%b4%e6%9c%9f%e6%94%b6%e7%9b%8a%e7%8e%87%e5%b7%ae%e8%b7%9d%e7%bc%a9%e5%b0%8f%ef%bc%8c%e5%8d%b3%e4%be%bf%e6%8e%a8%e5%87%ba%e5%88%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2228","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u65e5\u672c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5dee\u8ddd\u7f29\u5c0f\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u63a8\u51fa\u523a\u6fc0\u65b9\u6848"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Pantheon Macroeconomics\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u79cd\u52bf\u5934\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u65e5\u672c\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u6446\u8131\u6301\u7eed30\u4f59\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u505c\u6ede\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u524d\u666f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u60b2\u89c2\u3002\u201d\u201c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u65e5\u672c\u8fdb\u5165\u8870\u9000\u65f6\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff1a\u623f\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u7ed3\u6784\u8c03\u6574\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4fee\u6b63\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u62d6\u7d2f\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

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\n

\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China's 30-Year Yield Premium Over Japan Is Vanishing Despite Stimulus Plan<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-26
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

Promoters of the theory that China faces a \u201c\u201d of its economy look set to enjoy a symbolic milestone in the bond market.The yield on China\u2019s 30-year government bonds is on track to fall below its Japanese equivalent for the first time in about two decades. China\u2019s long-term yields continue to plumb fresh lows amid a sluggish outlook for the world\u2019s second-largest economy, while Japan\u2019s have climbed to their highest in 13 years on bets the fourth-biggest has finally banished the scourge of deflation.China\u2019s economic struggles have fanned fears of a  like Japan experienced in the 1990s given an extended property slump, falling prices and weak demand for credit. Consumers and businesses opting to pay down debt following a real estate collapse were a hallmark of Japan\u2019s fall into decades of deflation. Chinese efforts to avoid what happened to its regional neighbor ramped up this week as Beijing unleashed the most daring  in decades with measures such as cuts to a slate of policy rates and the mulling of a stock stabilizing fund. President Xi Jinping and top leaders also  for sufficient fiscal spending and support for the property sector.The yield convergence \u201cis a result of growing optimism that Japan will be able to escape its three decades plus of economic stagnation, combined with mounting pessimism over China\u2019s medium to long-term outlook,\u201d said , chief China economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics. \u201cChina shares some of the features of Japan when it entered stagnation, such as the property sector downturn, balance sheet adjustment issues, asset price corrections and a demographic drag.\u201dChina\u2019s 30-year yield fell to 2.14% this week, the lowest since at least 2005 while Japan\u2019s climbed to about 2.07%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While China\u2019s woes have boosted investor appetite for bonds as a haven, Japanese debt has sold off on the return of inflation and the end of the country\u2019s negative interest-rate policy. Despite the economic similarities between China now and Japan during its period of deflation, there remain plenty of differences. For one, the People\u2019s Bank of China has refrained from the types of unconventional stimulus like quantitative easing and massive bond buying that defined Japan\u2019s response to its crisis. And the PBOC\u2019s  to better manage its yield curve include guiding longer-dated yields higher, not lower like Japan did.And in the bond market, shorter-dated yields in China are much higher than their Japanese counterparts.\u201cChina appears to be walking the path that Japan did but how it\u2019s walking is different because of the difference in the political systems,\u201d said , a fixed-income manager at Asset Management One Co. in Tokyo. \u201cChina is facing economic challenges, such as deteriorating demographics, that are building up like a mille-feuille.\u201dStill, for ING Bank NV, China\u2019s latest stimulus package won\u2019t be enough to deter demand for bonds and the downward trend in yields. That means Chinese yields may fall below those in Japan if the current trend continues.\u201cLower interest rates will once again widen the gap between bank deposits and bonds, so I still think the long end CGB yields will trend downward in the near term,\u201d said , greater China chief economist at the bank. \u201cWe will see money flow back into bonds.\u201d<\/pre>\n
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