{"id":2136,"date":"2024-10-01T04:13:09","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T20:13:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2136"},"modified":"2024-10-01T04:13:09","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T20:13:09","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e5%88%ba%e6%bf%80%e4%b8%be%e6%8e%aa%e6%8f%90%e6%8c%af%ef%bc%9a%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e3%80%81%e8%b4%b5%e9%87%91%e5%b1%9e%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc%e6%8c%81%e7%bb%ad%e4%b8%8a%e6%89%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2136","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u523a\u6fc0\u4e3e\u63aa\u63d0\u632f\uff1a\u80a1\u5e02\u3001\u8d35\u91d1\u5c5e\u4ef7\u683c\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u626c"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u6839\u636e\u6211\u7684\u540c\u4e8bAllegra Stratton\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u201c\u73b0\u5728\u5e76\u975e\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u65f6\u673a\u3002\u201d\u5173\u6ce8\u6211\u4eecTwitter\u8d26\u6237\u4e0a\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u65b0\u95fb\u548c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8fd9\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u52a9\u60a8\u7d27\u8ddf\u653f\u6cbb\u5e72\u9884\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n

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\n

\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China Stimulus: Stock Markets, Gold and Silver Keep Climbing<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-26
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

Welcome to the award-winning  newsletter. I\u2019m . Every week day I look at the biggest stories in markets and economics, and explain what it all means for your money.China\u2019s Great Wall (of stimulus) has been greeted with a reassuring level of scepticism. I say \u201creassuring\u201d because it means that this really might represent a bit of a turning point. If everyone was claiming \u201cthis is it!\u201d, then it probably wouldn\u2019t work. Instead, everyone is saying \u201cyeah, maybe we get a sugar rush\u201d (and they\u2019re only saying that because it\u2019s blatantly visible in the way Hong Kong and ) but overall it\u2019s not enough. China\u2019s problems are deep and structural, and it\u2019ll take more to fix them.The thing is, two things can be true. It may well not be enough. \u201cFixing\u201d an economy after a burst property bubble is hard, even when you have the advantage that China does of actually being able to get stuff done when it wants to (here in Britain, we\u2019ve effectively banned that, ). However, even if China doesn\u2019t get \u201cfixed,\u201d or it takes a long time to get there, the change of tone may still help. If nothing else, it\u2019ll keep trying. Note that China is even throwing in a dash of \u201chelicopter money\u201d \u2014 handing out \u201cconsumption vouchers\u201d \u2014 ahead of an upcoming national holiday (not the first time it\u2019s done this, to be clear). More to the point, it can still be bullish for assets more broadly even if your average Chinese homeowner still has no idea what to do with their deep-in-negative-equity home. Why? Well, the world\u2019s biggest economy \u2014 the US \u2014 is now keen to cut interest rates and loosen monetary policy. Neither of the people who may run it after November are \u201causterity\u201d presidents. And now, the world\u2019s second-biggest economy \u2014 China \u2014 has decided that while it\u2019s no longer necessarily glorious to get rich, the wider population doesn\u2019t much relish the idea of heading back down the road to serfdom either. That change of attitude points to looser policy there too.  What do asset prices (mostly) like? Money. Money just flowing around hunting for a home.   Gold Hits a Fresh RecordYou can see it across the market, but most obviously, gold hit another new record today. It\u2019s up in US dollars, but it also hit a big round milestone in sterling \u2014 it\u2019s worth \u00a32,000 an ounce now, for the first time ever.More intriguingly, that disreputable scamp silver finally seems to be waking up too \u2014 it\u2019s at its highest level since 2012.This is striking because the gold bull market had previously been pretty much confined to the precious metal itself. I suspect that was due to the underlying nature of the buying, which was very much focused within central banks, who genuinely do buy gold as a \u201csafe haven\u201d \u2014 an asset whose value does not depend on the credit of another nation or company.(By contrast, I think it\u2019s a mistake for individual investors to think of gold as a \u201csafe haven,\u201d because it can lose a lot of its nominal value in a short period of time, which means that in fact it\u2019s rather risky, in financial market terms. But I digress.)Anyway, my point is that the rise in gold is spreading to its \u201chigher-beta\u201d plays. Silver has a reputation as a bit of monetary metal but it\u2019s heavily influenced by its industrial uses too. So when it\u2019s going up, the underlying reason is more \u201cit\u2019s because gold is going up\u201d than \u201cit\u2019s because I\u2019m scared of currency devaluation.\u201dEven the gold miners \u2014 definite contenders for the most disappointing individual stock market sector in history \u2014 seem to be picking up the pace somewhat.   I\u2019ve said before, on many, many occasions, that I think the next big problem for financial markets (whatever it ends up being) will be one driven by inflation rather than deflation.Edward Harrison, who writes the excellent , pointed out the other day that with its jumbo rate cut, the Fed has \u201celiminated the left tail,\u201d which is a grown-up finance-y way of saying that the US central bank is reassuring markets that a deflationary crash is off the menu. It doesn\u2019t mean that everything is hunky-dory and it doesn\u2019t mean we won\u2019t run into trouble in the longer run. But when we do, it will look different to the last big crash in 2008. And in the meantime, as Harrison puts it, \u201cit\u2019s not time to be bearish.\u201d  Send any feedback, opinions or questions to  and I\u2019ll print the best. If you were forwarded this email by a friend or colleague, .Looking at wider markets \u2014 the FTSE 100 is up 0.1% at around 8,280. The FTSE 250 is up 1.1% at 20,990. Gold is up 0.7% at $2,675 an ounce, and oil (as measured by Brent crude) is down about 2.8% to $71.40 a barrel. Bitcoin is up 1.6% at $64,480 per coin, while Ethereum is up 1.9% at $2,630. The pound is up 0.4% against the US dollar at $1.338, and is down 0.2% against the euro at \u20ac1.198.  Follow      for up-to-the-minute news and analysis that move markets.  We\u2019re in a world where politics and political interventions matter far more to markets than they did in the pre-2008 era of consensus, globalisation, and voter apathy. So be sure to read my colleague Allegra Stratton\u2019s daily newsletter, , to keep up. The main stories to watch out for on Friday include:  , our newsletter chronicling corporate bankruptcies, distressed debt, and turnaround stories, delivered Tuesdays and Fridays.  And if you want up-to-the-minute news commentary with the odd joke flung in, follow me on .<\/pre>\n
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