{"id":2086,"date":"2024-09-30T23:32:09","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T15:32:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2086"},"modified":"2024-09-30T23:32:09","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T15:32:09","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%9a%84%e4%bf%a1%e7%94%a8%e5%bc%b9%e8%8d%af%e5%a8%81%e5%8a%9b%e4%bb%8a%e9%9d%9e%e6%98%94%e6%af%94","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2086","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4fe1\u7528\u5f39\u836f\u5a01\u529b\u4eca\u975e\u6614\u6bd4"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba2\u9605\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u5965\u745f\uff08John Authers\uff09\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u901a\u8baf\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u6ce8\u518c\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u2022 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u6539\u5584\u5c06\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f62\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u80fd\u591f\u901a\u8fc7\u4fe1\u8d37\u523a\u6fc0\u5b9e\u73b05%\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u2022 \u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u4ecd\u7136\u7b26\u5408\u6b64\u524d\u5bf9\u653f\u5e9c\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u672a\u8ba9\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u7279\u522b\u610f\u5916\u3002David Roche\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u884c\u52a8\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u8bd5\u56fe\u6700\u5927\u5316\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u201c\u91cd\u70ae\u201d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5e38\u89c4\u7684\u589e\u91cf\u5f0f\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u9664\u4e86\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4e0d\u4e50\u89c2\u5916\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u8005\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u9879\u7531Absolute Strategy Research\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u80fd\u5426\u5b9e\u73b05%\u589e\u957f\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u663e\u8457\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5176\u4ed6\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u2022 \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u653f\u5e9c\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u63aa\u65bd\u8bd5\u56fe\u6b62\u4f4f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u6ed1\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u63d0\u632f\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u4f46\u5916\u754c\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4ea7\u751f\u6301\u4e45\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u90fd\u5728\u63a2\u8ba8\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u662f\u5426\u9700\u8981\u65b0\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u6765\u523a\u6fc0\u589e\u957f\u6216\u9632\u6b62\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u786c\u7740\u9646\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u2022 \u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bdd\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u60a8\u63d0\u4f9b\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u5206\u6790\u548c\u89c1\u89e3\u3002\u5982\u9700\u4e86\u89e3\u66f4\u591a\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u8bf7\u8bbf\u95ee\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u9875\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba2\u9605\u6216\u83b7\u53d6\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u606f\u3002 <\/p>\n

\n

\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China's Credit Bazooka Isn\u2019t What It Used to Be<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-25
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

      To get John Authers' newsletter delivered directly to your inbox, sign up .         \u2022  China\u2019s credit  isn\u2019t a .       \u2022   Stimulus will probably boost  for a while.       \u2022   But meaningful improvement will .        \u2022   Asset allocators have convinced themselves that the Chinese economy .       \u2022   AND: More songs about .China\u2019s , announced with uncharacteristic fanfare, is a last-ditch effort at halt the economy from slipping further into an abyss. In classic central bank terminology, there were calls for a ; and if there had been any doubt about the  Beijing would go to revive its economy, the policy campaign unveiled by Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People\u2019s Bank of China, should provide the answers. It involved lower rates, lower reserve requirements for banks, direct support for the stock market and for mortgages. The  showed investors\u2019 thirst for any semblance of  assurance from the government.And yet Tuesday\u2019s stimulus package, especially the parts targeting the real estate sector, comes as anything but a surprise.  made the most robust case yet for an intervention that jolts failing consumer demand, with the Federal Reserve\u2019s jumbo cut relieving pressure on China\u2019s currency and cementing those calls. Indeed, the yuan actually strengthened to its highest (and the offshore yuan even broke the 7.0 barrier) since May last year in the wake of a move that should have been directly negative for it:And many analysts complained that this package still doesn\u2019t address the biggest problem facing China. David Roche of Quantum Strategy made trenchant criticism:Some of the measures still came as a surprise. Pan\u2019s announcement of 800 billion yuan, about $113 billion, to support the onshore equities market in a \u201cstock stabilization fund\u201d sent the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 soaring. This TS Lombard chart captures Tuesday\u2019s rally as the central bank unpacked its reforms:This move looks a lot like a particularly shameless version of a \u201cFed put,\u201d in which traders assume the central bank will jump to the  rescue in times of trouble. The central bank pledged to create a 500 billion-yuan swap facility, allowing securities firms, funds, and insurance companies to use bonds, stocks, ETFs, and other assets as collateral to obtain highly liquid assets from the PBOC. TS Lombard\u2019s Rory Green and Freya Beamish argue that this \u201cput\u201d suggests a  may be in the offing. Indeed, the bank\u2019s unusual sudden and explicit involvement in the equity markets suggests panic, the analysts argue:They caution that in an uncertain macroeconomic environment, the stock rally should be seen as a trade, not an investment \u2014 and one that is best approached with caution. Previous relief rallies since 2021 have been \u201cfast and furious\u201d and ultimately short-lived. And China has an unfortunate history of intervening clumsily in the stock market, causing bubbles in A-shares that burst in 2007 and 2015. Without serious demand-side follow-through, the current rally will likely keep within the post-Covid trend, feeding into the unmissable pessimism that preceded Pan\u2019s latest efforts.Is such negative sentiment justified? In recent years, stimulus policies have typically been delivered piecemeal, engendering distrust. Rayliant Global Advisors\u2019 Jason Hsu argues that this approach is more of a \u201cbazooka\u201d in which authorities fire massively all at once in an attempt to maximize the impact, than the usual incrementalism: But the general tenor of reaction has been more negative, because China\u2019s problems appear too deep to fix with the kind of credit stimulus that it used in the past.  says companies aren\u2019t gloomy due to a lack of credit supply or because credit is too expensive. Rather, they\u2019ve been unwilling for years to borrow, regardless of credit conditions, because corporate sentiment is so poor:That leads to a swiftly forming consensus among investors; that monetary expansion and support for the stock market aren\u2019t that important, and that instead fiscal measures will be needed to lift the economy out of what is widely seen as a Japan-style deflationary slump. The Communist Party\u2019s intent to deliver a jolt was necessary. It drove a big rally for China\u2019s stocks and currency, both of which were in need of some relief. But it\u2019s hard to find any analysts outside the country who believe that this will make a durable difference. The jury is out on whether these measures will be enough to get economic growth over the 5% target.    \u2014Richard AbbeyIf China\u2019s economy is in trouble, does it matter for the rest of the world? For much of this century, that has been a silly question: of course it does, a lot. The bazooka package of stimulus measures late in 2008 was crucial in restoring sentiment in the worst days of the Global Financial Crisis. But that is changing, and consciously or otherwise, investors are now placing a big bet that the great Chinese growth machine can at last start to sputter without affecting everyone else.That\u2019s implicit in the latest survey of global asset allocators carried out by Absolute Strategy Research, conducted last week before the flurry of news from China. For the the last three years, it\u2019s asked whether Beijing can achieve its target of 5% growth over the next 12 months. (Before that, there was no need to ask the question as growth of at least 5% was assumed.) The survey shows a serious shift in confidence toward China over the last three months:What\u2019s interesting is that this big drop in confidence in China has co-existed with minimal shifts in the perceived probability of other outcomes. It simply hasn\u2019t moved the needle much elsewhere, if at all:Further, machine language analysis to group the respondents found that bulls and bears had no significant difference of opinion over China. It simply isn\u2019t regarded as a pivotal issue either by those who are positive or negative. All of this amplifies the results of Bank of America Corp.\u2019s monthly survey of fund managers, which also found a steep decline in confidence but no concern that the Chinese economy represented a tail risk.  this BofA chart last week:This is, to put it mildly, a big change. The massive stimulus of 2008, but also smaller credit bazookas in 2015 and during the pandemic in 2020, drove strong performance by developed equities \u2014 even though they shouldn\u2019t be directly affected by changing availability of finance to Chinese consumers and businesses. This chart compares changes in Bloomberg Economics\u2019 measure of the China credit impulse (the change in new credit issued as a percentage of gross domestic product) with the MSCI World index of developed market stocks. The latest rally in the MSCI World is the first since the GFC that\u2019s been achieved without any help from a surge in Chinese credit:The underlying belief that China\u2019s economic health is essential for everyone else has taken a battering. That shows up from the relative performance of stocks and bonds in the US and China. With a brief divergence for a Chinese stock bubble in 2015, the stock\/bond ratio in the two economic powers tracked each other closely until 2021. Since then, the divergence has been dramatic: It\u2019s not that international investors don\u2019t think China\u2019s growth is faltering. Rather, they believe that it just doesn\u2019t matter. International assets most directly affected by China show significant disquiet. , for which China has long been the biggest customer at the margin, suffered a slide earlier this year. Most interestingly, MSCI\u2019s index of the 100 stocks in the MSCI World with the greatest exposure to China has dropped by almost 20% relative to the MSCI World as a whole:Response to Tuesday\u2019s measures outside China was positive, with US stocks up a little to new all-time highs. But it wasn\u2019t ecstatic. And the rally does appear to be contradictory. China would seem to be central to any possibility of a hard landing, and goods inflation is falling globally in large part because China is exporting deflation. David Bowers, who compiles Absolute Strategy\u2019s survey, suggests that psychology may have been shifted by the move toward deeming the Chinese stock market uninvestable: \u201cYou might not be able to invest in China any more, but it really makes a difference to the market environment.\u201dWhat\u2019s the best trade to chase for the rest of the year, and what is the most foolish? Now that the Federal Reserve has launched its long-awaited easing cycle with a bang, how to trade it? How many more cuts this year, and which asset class will do best? This is your latest chance to share your views in a quick Bloomberg  for MLIV Pulse.The results should be interesting. Please give it a little of your time. We have more starry song recommendations following on from the discussion of . Try  by Smash Mouth,  by Kenny Chesney,  by Simply Red,  by Nickelback,  by Post Malone feat. 21 Savage,  by DaBaby feat. Roddy Ricch,  by Tinie Tempah, \u201cSign of the Times\u201d by the ,   by Elton John & LeAnn Rimes,  by the Kids From Fame,  by Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone from La La Land,  from The Greatest Showman,  by Jason Robert Brown (also covered by ,  by Wilco\/Billy Bragg,  by OMD,  by Franciscus Henri,  by The Firm, and  by Crosby, Stills and Nash. More stars welcome.  More From Bloomberg Opinion:  Want more Bloomberg Opinion? . Or you can subscribe to .<\/pre>\n
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