{"id":2068,"date":"2024-09-30T22:21:17","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T14:21:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2068"},"modified":"2024-09-30T22:21:17","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T14:21:17","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e5%b9%b2%e9%a2%84%e6%8c%91%e6%88%98%e6%88%96%e5%9c%a8%e6%83%85%e7%bb%aa%e6%b6%88%e9%80%80%e5%90%8e%e5%8a%a0%e5%89%a7%e6%8c%81%e4%b9%85%e8%80%83%e9%aa%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2068","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u5e72\u9884\u6311\u6218\u6216\u5728\u60c5\u7eea\u6d88\u9000\u540e\u52a0\u5267\u6301\u4e45\u8003\u9a8c"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Barclays Plc\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458Kaanhari Singh\u56e2\u961f\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5199\u5230\uff0c\u201c\u4ece\u4fe1\u53f7\u5c42\u9762\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u63d0\u4f9b\u5145\u8db3\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7f13\u89e3\u6050\u614c\u629b\u552e\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u548c\u5bb6\u5ead\u6295\u8d44\u8d8b\u52bf\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u9a71\u52a8\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u96f6\u552e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u63a8\u52a8\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

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\n

\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China\u2019s Stocks Intervention Faces Long Odds Once Euphoria Fades<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-25
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

China\u2019s pledge of up to $340 billion to boost its ailing equities is invoking parallels with past efforts at home and in Japan that largely faltered in lifting the economy after an initial burst of enthusiasm.The massive support is part of a broader stimulus package unveiled by People\u2019s Bank of China Governor  and other top officials Tuesday. The goal is to reverse a drain on household wealth and prime an economy suffering a years-long housing crisis and mired in deflation and weak demand.Going by the experience in Japan, where the central bank\u2019s purchases of exchange-traded funds did little to help the reflation of the economy, that will be a tall order.\u201cChina\u2019s easing steps may have some short-term impact, but they\u2019ll only help buy time,\u201d said , head of Japan research at Oxford Economics and former chief of the Bank of Japan\u2019s international department. \u201cThe BOJ\u2019s ETF buying was effective at addressing short-term market shocks but it\u2019s not something to keep doing for a long time in pursuit of stirring inflation,\u201d Nagai said.The first round of financing made available by the PBOC will be worth a total of 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) and could be doubled or even tripled depending on how much demand there is for the money, according to Pan, who said the central bank is also considering a \u201cstabilization fund.\u201dInvestors initially cheered the rollout, sending onshore stocks up 6% since the announcement. Analysts at HSBC Holdings Plc described it as a \u201cgame changer\u201dThese \u201cunprecedented measures to channel liquidity to the stock market\u201d could help the market find a bottom and support a rebound towards the end of the year, said HSBC analysts led by .But the initial promised amount of 800 billion yuan is barely more than the average daily turnover of Class A shares so far this year, according to Bloomberg calculations. The new commitment would come on top of the ongoing purchases by government entities such as sovereign wealth fund Central Huijin Investment Ltd., which has has been  stock ETFs since October. So far this year, Huijin has purchased more than $90 billion, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, which estimates it will buy more than $110 billion worth of ETFs for the whole year. China\u2019s benchmark CSI 300 Index opened mostly flat on Thursday after paring much of its gains the previous day.\u201cThese measures should help improve investor sentiment and liquidity, and push both onshore and offshore markets to react positively in the near term,\u201d said , Morgan Stanley\u2019s chief China equity strategist. However, \u201cthe scale of the rebound and its sustainability hinge on a successful breakout from deflation and corporate earnings growth bottoming out.\u201dThe latest push builds on a long history of China\u2019s wading into its capital market, though the role of the PBOC in such interventions hasn\u2019t been clear. The rescue attempt following 2005\u2019s stock crash was largely led by China Securities Regulatory Commission. Another effort followed a decade later when the central bank tried to devalue the yuan, unleashing a currency slump, capital flight, and further declines in stocks. At that time, the central government also . China Securities Finance Corp., alongside other state-backed institutions in the so-called \u2018National Team\u2019 spent trillions of yuan, with some of that  from sources including the  and commercial lenders. The PBOC was said to have provided funding but the exact number was never made public.\u201cIn terms of the signal, this is a meaningful development and reminiscent of the 2015 playbook as using the PBOC\u2019s balance sheet implies ample firepower,\u201d Barclays Plc analysts led by Kaanhari Singh wrote in a report. \u201cBut a sustainable stock-market rebound is going to rely on households directing their deposits back towards equities.\u201dChina has little to show for its past efforts, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index down almost 30% from the mid-2015 peak. While a more activist state policy may serve to buffer panic selling in the short term, it\u2019s corporate earnings and household investment trends that play the biggest role in a market that is still driven mostly by retail investors. More than a decade of equities purchases by Japan\u2019s central bank also hold lessons for China. The BOJ  around $258 billion of stock funds until it formally phased out its purchases in March. The central bank bank became particularly aware of its overreach in the market when it became the nation\u2019s largest holder of equities in 2020.The effort led to \u201cshort-term market gains but had a limited long-term impact,\u201d according to a report from Morgan Stanley analysts led by  on Tuesday. \u201cAs we have seen from Japan\u2019s experience, the key takeaway is that the sustainability and scale of the rebound in asset markets will have to hinge on a successful breakout from deflation and corporate earnings growth bottoming out and recovering,\u201d they said.<\/pre>\n
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