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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.nytimes.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>Opinion | What This Israel-Hezbollah-Hamas-Iran Conflict is Really About<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-29
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

To understand why and how Israel\u2019s devastating blow to Hezbollah is such a world-shaking threat to Iran, Russia, North Korea and even China, you have to put it in the context of the wider struggle that has replaced the Cold War as the framework of international relations today.\nAfter the Hamas invasion of Israel on Oct. 7, I argued that we were no longer in the Cold War, or the post-Cold War. We were in the post-post-Cold War: a struggle between an ad hoc \u201ccoalition of inclusion\u201d \u2014 decent countries, not all of them democracies, who see their future as best delivered by a U.S.-led alliance nudging the world to greater economic integration, openness and collaboration to meet global challenges, like climate change \u2014 versus a \u201ccoalition of resistance,\u201d led by Russia, Iran and North Korea: brutal, authoritarian regimes who use their opposition to the U.S.-led world of inclusion to justify militarizing their societies and maintaining an iron grip on power.\nChina has been straddling the two camps because its economy depends on access to the coalition of inclusion while the government\u2019s leadership shares a lot of the authoritarian instincts and interests of the coalition of resistance.\nYou have to see the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon in the context of this global struggle. Ukraine was trying to join the world of inclusion in Europe \u2014 seeking freedom from Russia\u2019s orbit and to join the European Union \u2014 and Israel and Saudi Arabia were trying to expand the world of inclusion in the Middle East by normalizing relations.\nRussia attempted to stop Ukraine from joining the West (the European Union and NATO) and Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah attempted to stop Israel from joining the East (ties with Saudi Arabia). Because if Ukraine joined the European Union, the inclusive vision of a Europe \u201cwhole and free\u201d would be almost complete and Vladimir Putin\u2019s kleptocracy in Russia almost completely isolated.\nAnd if Israel were allowed to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, not only would that vastly expand the coalition of inclusion in that region \u2014 a coalition already expanded by the Abraham Accords that created ties between Israel and other Arab nations \u2014 it would almost totally isolate Iran and its reckless proxies of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq, all of which were driving their countries into failed states.\nIndeed, it is hard to exaggerate how much Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by an Israeli strike on Friday, were detested in Lebanon and many parts of the Sunni and Christian Arab world for the way they had kidnapped Lebanon and turned it into a base for Iranian imperialism.\nI was speaking over the weekend to Orit Perlov, who tracks Arab social media for Israel\u2019s Institute for National Security Studies. She described the flood of social media postings from across Lebanon and the Arab world celebrating Hezbollah\u2019s demise and urging the Lebanese government to declare a unilateral cease-fire so the Lebanese Army could seize control of Southern Lebanon from Hezbollah and bring quiet to the border. The Lebanese don\u2019t want Beirut to be destroyed like Gaza and they are truly afraid of a return of civil war, Perlov explained to me. Nasrallah had already dragged the Lebanese into a war with Israel they never wanted, but Iran ordered.\nThis comes on top of the deep anger for the way Hezbollah joined with the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to crush the democratic uprising there. It is literally like the Wicked Witch from the Wizard of Oz is dead and now everyone is thanking Dorothy (i.e., Israel).\nBut there is a lot of diplomatic work to be done to translate the end of Nasrallah to a sustainably better future for the Lebanese, Israelis and Palestinians.\nThe Biden-Harris administration has been building a network of alliances to give strategic weight to the ad hoc coalition of inclusion \u2014 from Japan, Korea, the Philippines and Australia in the Far East, through India and across to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and then up through the European Union and NATO. The keystone of the whole project was the Biden team\u2019s proposed normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which the Saudis are ready to do, provided Israel agrees to open negotiations with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank on a two-state solution.\nAnd here comes the rub.\nPay very close attention to the speech by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel before the U.N. General Assembly on Friday. He understands very well the struggle between the coalitions of \u201cresistance\u201d and \u201cinclusion\u201d that I am talking about. In fact, it was central to his U.N. speech.\nHow so? Bibi held up two maps during his address, one was titled \u201cThe Blessing\u201d and the other \u201cThe Curse.\u201d \u201cThe Curse\u201d showed Syria, Iraq and Iran in black as a blocking coalition between the Middle East and Europe. The second map, \u201cThe Blessing,\u201d showed the Middle East with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Sudan in green and a red two-way arrow going across them, as a bridge connecting the world of inclusion in Asia with the world of inclusion in Europe.\nBut if you looked closely at Bibi\u2019s \u201cCurse\u201d map, it showed Israel \u2014 but no borders with Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank (as if it had already been annexed \u2014 the goal of this Israeli government).\nAnd that is the rub. The story Bibi wants to tell the world is that Iran and its proxies are the main obstacle to the world of inclusion stretching from Europe, through the Middle East over to the Asia-Pacific region.\nI beg to differ. The keystone to this whole alliance is a Saudi-Israel normalization based on reconciliation between Israel and moderate Palestinians.\nIf Israel now moved ahead and opened a dialogue on two states for two peoples with a reformed Palestinian Authority, which has already accepted the Oslo peace treaty, it would be the diplomatic knockout blow that would accompany and solidify the military knockout blow Israel just delivered to Hezbollah and Hamas.\nIt would totally isolate the forces of \u201cresistance\u201d in the region and take away their phony shield \u2014 that they are the defenders of the Palestinian cause. Nothing would rattle Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Russia \u2014 even China \u2014 more.\nBut to do that Netanyahu would have to take a political risk even greater than the military risk he just took in killing the leadership of Hezbollah, a.k.a. \u201cThe Party of God.\u201d\nNetanyahu would have to break with the Israeli \u201cParty of God\" \u2014 the coalition of far-right Jewish settler supremacists and messianists who want Israel to permanently control all the territory from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean, with no border lines in between \u2014 just like on Bibi\u2019s U.N. map. Those parties keep Bibi in power, so he would need to replace them with Israeli centrist parties, which I know would collaborate with him on such a move.\nSo there you have the big challenge of the day: The struggle between the world of inclusion and the world of resistance comes down to many things, but none more \u2014 today \u2014 than Netanyahu\u2019s willingness to follow up his blow to the \u201cParty of God\u201d in Lebanon by dealing a similar political blow to the \u201cParty of God\u201d in Israel.\n<\/pre>\n
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