{"id":2038,"date":"2024-09-30T21:26:09","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T13:26:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=2038"},"modified":"2024-09-30T21:26:09","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T13:26:09","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e5%85%b1%e4%ba%a7%e5%85%9a75%e5%91%a8%e5%b9%b4%e5%8d%8e%e8%af%9e%e4%b9%8b%e9%99%85%ef%bc%8c%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e6%bf%80%e6%98%82%e4%b8%8a%e6%b6%a8%ef%bc%8c%e7%84%b6%e8%80%8c%e5%b9%b6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=2038","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a75\u5468\u5e74\u534e\u8bde\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u6fc0\u6602\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u6c89\u6d78\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u559c\u60a6\u6c1b\u56f4"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u636e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5f90\u5929\u8fb0\uff08Economist Intelligence Unit\u7684\u8d44\u6df1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff09\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u63aa\u65bd\u540c\u65f6\u63a8\u51fa\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u6025\u5207\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u632f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u80a1\u653f\u7b56\u5feb\u6253\u4e3a\u840e\u9761\u4e0d\u632f\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e00\u9488\u5f3a\u5fc3\u5242\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u957f\u5047\u524d\u4e00\u5468\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u8fd116\u5e74\u6765\u6700\u5927\u5355\u5468\u6da8\u5e45\u8d85\u8fc715%\u3002\u9999\u6e2f\u6052\u751f\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u5468\u5927\u6da813%\uff0c\u521b\u4e0b\u81ea1998\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u8868\u73b0\uff08\u6839\u636e\u8def\u900f\u793e\uff09\u3002\u5468\u4e00\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u72c2\u70ed\uff0c\u4e0a\u6d77\u548c\u6df1\u5733\u4e24\u4e2a\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u7684\u603b\u6210\u4ea4\u989d\u8fbe\u52301.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\uff08\u7ea62280\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\uff0c\u521b\u4e0b\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.cnn.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>Communist China is celebrating its 75th birthday\u00a0and its stock market is soaring.\u00a0But not everyone is in the party spirit<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-30
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

For much of the past year since China reopened to the world following the Covid-19 pandemic, a pall has hung over large swathes of the country as its economy struggles to regain momentum. The country\u2019s bright young minds are having a hard time landing a job; its white-collar professionals are hit by pay cuts and layoffs; its entrepreneurs struggle to finance their businesses and pay off debts; its middle-class families are seeing their wealth slashed by crumbling housing prices; and its rich race to move money out of the country. In the months leading up to the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People\u2019s Republic on Tuesday, the mood was encapsulated by a new buzz phrase: \u201cthe garbage time of history.\u201d Like the final minutes of a basketball game with one team trailing so far behind that all efforts to win seem futile, some Chinese believe their country is trapped in a similarly bleak period with little hope for a turnaround. The pessimism was a far cry from the buoyant outlook just five years ago, during the last major National Day celebrations in 2019. Back then, economists were rushing to predict when China might overtake the United States to become the world\u2019s largest economy. Those conversations aren\u2019t happening much anymore. These days, the talk centers on how Beijing can\u00a0avoid a repeat of Japan\u2019s \u201clost decade\u201d of economic stagnation following bursting of its housing bubble in the 1990s. Last week, after months of increasingly grim economic data, Chinese leader Xi Jinping finally gave the nod to a much-needed stimulus package in a bid to shore up faith in the world\u2019s second largest economy. On Tuesday, the country\u2019s central bank unveiled a raft of measures to counter falling prices, including freeing commercial banks to lend more money and making it cheaper for households and companies to borrow. Officials kept up the positive drumbeat the next day by announcing rare cash handouts to disadvantaged citizens and pledging subsidies for recent graduates struggling to find a job. And on Thursday, the ruling Communist Party\u2019s 24-member Politburo continued the bullish messaging. In a break with tradition, Xi dedicated the group\u2019s September meeting to economic affairs. The top officials acknowledged that \u201cnew situations and problems\u201d have arisen in the economy and demanded urgent action, vowing to boost fiscal spending, arrest the decline of the property market and improve employment for fresh graduates and migrant workers. According to Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, the \u201crare, simultaneous rollout of so many measures underscored the urgency for policymakers to prop up the economy.\u201d The policy blitz gave an adrenaline shot to the country\u2019s dismal stock market days before the week-long national holiday, which starts on Tuesday. China\u2019s blue-chips stocks soared more than 15% last week in its biggest single-week gain in nearly 16 years. Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng index surged 13%, notching its best week since 1998, according to Reuters. The frenzy continued on Monday, when the combined turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan ($228 billion), logging a record high, according to the Securities Times, a state-run financial newspaper. That\u2019s despite a key measure of factory activity, the official purchasing managers\u2019 index (PMI), shrinking for another month in September. Remarkable turnaround Even some big-name investors are excited by the rally. David Tepper, the billionaire founder of American hedge fund Appaloosa Management, told CNBC in an interview Thursday that he was buying more of \u201ceverything\u201d related to China. The stock market may be in the midst of one of its most remarkable turnarounds, but economists say reversing China\u2019s economic downturn will require much more work. \u201cStimulating the stock market doesn\u2019t really do much for the real economy in China. Very few people invest in the stock market compared to other major markets,\u201d said Logan Wright, director of China markets research at Rhodium Group. Chinese households have suffered a massive loss of wealth from a slump in the housing market, amounting to an estimated $18 trillion, Barclays economists said in a research note earlier this month. It\u2019s as if each three-person household in China has lost around $60,000, an amount that is almost five times China\u2019s per capita gross domestic product. Wright said the stimulus package \u201cmakes the leadership look more reactive, more responsive to the downturn in the economy. And that is what\u2019s generated some of the more positive sentiment (last) week. But nothing really changes in terms of the structural outlook.\u201d China\u2019s decades-long investment-led growth has reached \u201ca dead end,\u201d and fundamental overhauls of its fiscal system \u2014 including a redistribution of income and greater transfers to households \u2014 are needed to rebalance the economy toward a more sustainable consumption-led growth model, Wright said. There has been little in the barrage of measures announced last week to address the underlying structural problems weighing down economic growth. China has long had one of the highest saving rates in the world. While one-off cash handouts and subsidies may boost short-term consumption, robust social welfare and healthcare are needed to make Chinese households feel comfortable to spend more in the long run, especially following the collapse of the property sector, where most Chinese invest their savings. Property woes The outlook for the real estate industry, which makes up about a quarter of the Chinese economy and 70% of household wealth, remains dim. \u201cThere\u2019s not much Beijing can do,\u201d Wright said. \u201cIn many ways, the adjustment in the property sector is almost complete, and policy hasn\u2019t been very effective in stabilizing it.\u201d After decades of boom, China\u2019s real estate sector is now in its fourth year of contraction since falling into a deep crisis in\u00a02020, when the government cracked down on excessive borrowing by developers to rein in their high debt. Beijing\u2019s efforts to rescue the market have struggled to revive demand, with prices of new homes continuing their freefall. In a concerted push to prop up the embattled property market, the southern metropolis of Guangzhou became China\u2019s first tier-one city to lift all restrictions on home purchases on Sunday, while Shanghai and Shenzhen also eased rules for home buyers. The country now has so many empty apartments that not even all of its 1.4 billion people are enough to fill them. To make matters worse, the population has been shrinking for two years, a demographic shift that could further hobble future growth. The Chinese government\u2019s efforts to encourage births has also failed. More and more young people are delaying marriage and childbirth, if not foregoing them all together. Many feel jaded or burnt out from \u201cinvolution\u201d \u2013 a catchphrase describing the intense competition that has dominated their lives, from striving for academic excellence to building a successful career. Some are resorting to \u201clying flat\u201d or \u201cletting it rot,\u201d a form of passive resistance against society\u2019s pressure by doing just enough to get by. These buzzwords sum up a growing sense of despair among China\u2019s disenchanted youth. Some are finding the arc of their lives increasingly out of sync with the expected upward trajectory described in Xi\u2019s \u201cChina dream,\u201d a grand vision of \u201cunstoppable\u201d national rejuvenation. Having grown up in an era of breakneck economic growth and ever-improving living standards, China\u2019s Gen-Zs are now reckoning with the possibility that they might not do better than their parents, whose generation accepted limited freedoms in exchange for promised prosperity. Over the past years, China\u2019s youth have watched their personal freedoms shrink under Xi\u2019s authoritarian rule and their job prospects dim in a flagging economy. Xi\u2019s crackdown on the private sector, from big tech to private tutoring, has eliminated many jobs once available to China\u2019s fresh graduates.\u00a0The youth unemployment rate soared to 18.8% in August, the highest since authorities changed the methodology last year to exclude students. That poses a potential problem for the Communist Party, which has for decades staked its legitimacy on the country\u2019s unprecedented growth. As the economy slows, Xi has bolstered another pillar of the regime\u2019s legitimacy: nationalism, which he is expected to invoke to mark the country\u2019s 75th anniversary on Tuesday. But Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said Chinese leaders are not \u201cplanning on giving up the economic performance argument yet.\u201d \u201cThey want to restore confidence in the economy, but the most troublesome headache for the Communist Party is they don\u2019t have effective solutions to the economic slowdown.\u201d<\/pre>\n
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