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\u4e00\u4f4d\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u6295\u8d44\u516c\u53f8Un Union Bancaire Privee\u8d1f\u8d23\u5317\u4e9a\u80a1\u6743\u54a8\u8be2\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u9ad8\u7ba1\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u60ca\u559c\u5728\u4e8e\u592e\u884c\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4f4d\u4e0e\u8d44\u91d1\u6ce8\u5165\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u201d\u201c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\uff0c\u5728\u6b64\u653f\u7b56\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u4eab\u53d7\u4e00\u6bb5\u5145\u6ee1\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7684\u871c\u6708\u671f\u3002\u201d\u5979\u8865\u5145\u9053\uff0c\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u4e89\u53d6\u65f6\u95f4\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u589e\u957f\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China\u2019s Sweeping Stimulus Package Buys Economy Time, But Won\u2019t End Slump<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-24
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

First he took a sip of tea to gather his composure. Then Chinese central banker  unleashed one of the country\u2019s most daring policy campaigns in decades.In what amounts to a massive adrenaline shot for an economy on the cusp of a deflationary spiral, the governor of the People\u2019s Bank of China and other top financial officials unveiled a series of  that market watchers had wanted for weeks at a rare, high-level press conference on Tuesday in Beijing. They include interest rate cuts, more cash for banks, bigger incentives to buy homes and plans to consider a stock stabilization fund.Markets on the mainland and in Hong Kong soared, with the CSI 300 Index \u2014 a benchmark of onshore Chinese stocks \u2014 posting its biggest gain since July 2020. US equity futures advanced and European stocks climbed on the back of sectors with heavy exposure to China, including manufacturers of automobiles and luxury goods.The market reaction to the policy blitz suggests that Pan, a technocrat who spent time at Harvard and Cambridge, has bought the Chinese economy some precious time. Yet economists believe this is just a down payment if President  is going to pull the roughly $18 trillion economy out of a protracted slump marked by a  blowout, consumer price weakness and rising global trade tensions.\u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s enough to address the underlying issues behind China\u2019s movement towards the deflationary spiral,\u201d said , chief China economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics. What China needs, he added, is \u201ca package of reforms to fundamentally reconfigure the economy and unleash consumption growth.\u201dTuesday\u2019s briefing, hastily arranged only 48 hours earlier, came after weeks of growing anxiety among top leaders in Xi\u2019s government, according to people familiar with the situation. Senior policy makers held several unscheduled closed-door meetings to discuss the economy, as it became increasingly clear that this year\u2019s growth target was slipping out of reach, the people added.Of particular concern were warnings from officials in at least one major coastal province, an important contributor to growth, that it would struggle to hit the gross domestic product target, one of the people said.The swift turnaround from top Communist Party leaders came as a surprise to many officials, who had waited for months to hear any feedback on policy proposals they had drawn up to revive the economy. Last week they suddenly received requests for more information, forcing some to pull all-nighters ahead of Tuesday\u2019s briefing, according to regulatory officials who asked not to be identified discussing private matters.The work appeared to pay off. Pan and other officials have changed the narrative around China\u2019s economy for the moment. That\u2019s a big shift: In recent weeks, banks from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to UBS Group AG  for China\u2019s economic growth following a slew of bad data that  about falling prices.Bloomberg Economics and others  the government to hit Xi\u2019s goal of expanding GDP by \u201caround 5%\u201d this year. But most economists also agree that more is needed to avoid entrenched Japan-style . The big missing piece remains a coherent strategy to get China\u2019s 1.4 billion people to ramp up spending. \u201cA lot of China\u2019s issues are demand- or confidence-driven,\u201d said , a portfolio manager at Timefolio Asset Management Co. \u201cOverall, I don\u2019t think the measures can move the needle as China\u2019s problems are complex. And there\u2019s no silver bullet.\u201dWith the central bank surprising the market by doing more than expected, the spotlight now is on the Ministry of Finance. More fiscal measures could come in the next few days as Xi\u2019s 24-member Politburo is set to meet ahead of a weeklong annual holiday starting Tuesday. The event will mark the 75th anniversary since the Communist Party founded the People\u2019s Republic of China.Despite facing pressure from the US and elsewhere to stimulate consumption and rebalance the economy away from manufacturing, leaders in Beijing would prefer to avoid giving cash payments to people. Handouts are a common policy prescription to boost demand in various countries, but China worries about creating a welfare state it can\u2019t afford \u2014 and in a nation with one of the world\u2019s highest savings rates, officials doubt that most people would spend the money in any case.That has the market pinning hopes on more funding to buy up unsold homes, greater spending on social welfare and further moves to help consumers trade in old appliances. The Finance Ministry can also push local governments to sell more bonds to ramp up spending on infrastructure.A  is also emerging within China about whether to break away from unwritten rules to keep its fiscal deficit at about or less than 3% of GDP and maintain its sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio below 60%. The government should \u201csignificantly boost\u201d fiscal spending to pay for education, medical care and social security, according to , deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The think tank is affiliated with the State Council, China\u2019s equivalent of the US cabinet.\u201cWhile expansionary policies come with side effects, a lesson we should learn from Japan is the side effects would be even worse if expansionary policies are not taken or delayed,\u201d Xu said. \u201cChina should not be bound by outdated fiscal doctrines in the US and Europe.\u201dOfficials in Beijing want any fiscal measures to spur more confidence in the private sector. But Xi\u2019s government has taken a host of steps over the past several years that have done exactly the opposite, including  on tech giants like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and denouncing the \u201chedonistic\u201d lifestyles of finance workers.Read more: At least three top investment bankers from different securities firms have been  in recent months, along with five current and former employees of  AstraZeneca Plc. Concerns over the safety of executives, increased US-China tensions and an economy hampered by its troubled property sector are keeping foreign investors away.\u201cIt feels like we are a long way away from actually investing\u201d in China\u2019s property market, said , head and chief investment officer of Asia-Pacific real estate at BlackRock Inc., when asked about the impact of the stimulus. \u201cI want to see offshore capital focusing on it, and I want to see domestic capital also buying,\u201d he said. \u201cAt the moment there\u2019s not a lot of buyers in either of those two categories.\u201dAt Tuesday\u2019s briefing, Pan and other officials stuck firmly to monetary policy. And there was no mention of \u201cdeflation,\u201d a term that Chinese authorities have sought to censor. Still, the fact that the PBOC governor held a live televised briefing to announce big monetary policy moves, provide some forward guidance and take questions from reporters represents a sea change in how China operates.Under past governors, the PBOC typically announced major monetary policy decisions in statements published on its website. Sometimes an accompanying release would give some background information, attributed to an unnamed \u201crelevant official.\u201dTo some investors, the transparency shown on Tuesday indicated Beijing\u2019s urgency to stem a rout that has  more than $6 trillion from the market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since their 2021 peak.\u201cWhat surprised the market is the clear direction and funding from the PBOC in being a firm liquidity resort to prop up the stock market,\u201d said , head of equity advisory for North Asia at Union Bancaire Privee in Hong Kong. \u201cChinese capital markets should enjoy a sweet liquidity honeymoon period,\u201d she added. \u201cChina is buying time to fix more deep-seated growth problems.\u201d<\/pre>\n
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