{"id":1597,"date":"2024-09-24T23:14:27","date_gmt":"2024-09-24T15:14:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=1597"},"modified":"2024-09-24T23:14:27","modified_gmt":"2024-09-24T15:14:27","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e4%b8%87%e8%83%bd%e7%82%ae%e5%8f%91%e5%b8%83%e5%af%b9%e8%8b%b1%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e4%ba%ba%e7%9a%84%e8%b5%84%e4%ba%a7%e5%bd%b1%e5%93%8d%e8%a7%a3%e8%af%bb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=1597","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u201c\u4e07\u80fd\u70ae\u201d\u53d1\u5e03\u5bf9\u82f1\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u5f71\u54cd\u89e3\u8bfb"},"content":{"rendered":"

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### \u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u590d\u82cf<\/p>\n

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### \u5176\u4ed6\u6f5c\u5728\u5f71\u54cd<\/p>\n

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### \u5e02\u573a\u6982\u89c8<\/p>\n

– **FTSE 100**\uff1a\u4e0a\u6da8 0.2%\uff0c\u7ea68,280\u70b9\u3002
\n– **FTSE 250**\uff1a\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.2%\uff0c\u7ea620,810\u70b9\u3002
\n– **\u9ec4\u91d1**\uff1a\u6bcf\u76ce\u53f8\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.1%\uff0c\u81f32,625\u7f8e\u5143\u3002
\n– **\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u539f\u6cb9**\uff1a\u4e0a\u6da8\u7ea62.2% \u81f3\u6bcf\u687675.50\u7f8e\u5143\u3002
\n– **\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01**\uff1a\u4e0a\u6da8 0.3%\uff0c\u81f3\u6bcf\u5e0163,500\u7f8e\u5143\u3002
\n– **\u4ee5\u592a\u574a**\uff1a\u4e0b\u8dcc 0.8%\uff0c\u81f3\u6bcf\u5e012,640\u7f8e\u5143\u3002
\n– **\u82f1\u9551\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143**\uff1a\u4e0a\u6da80.3%\uff0c\u7ea6\u4e3a1.338\u7f8e\u5143\u3002
\n– **\u6b27\u5143\u5bf9\u82f1\u9551**\uff1a\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u7ea6\u20ac1.20\u3002<\/p>\n

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– \u73b0\u4eca\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5e72\u9884\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdc\u8d85\u524d2008\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u5316\u3001\u5171\u8bc6\u4e0e\u9009\u6c11\u51b7\u6f20\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8bf7\u52a1\u5fc5\u9605\u8bfb\u540c\u4e8bAllegra Stratton\u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u7b80\u62a5\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u4fdd\u6301\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u8ddf\u8e2a\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>UK Investors: What Does China\u2019s Bazooka Mean for Your Money?<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-24
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

Welcome to the award-winning  newsletter. I\u2019m . Every week day I look at the biggest stories in markets and economics, and explain what it all means for your money.At the start of this year I said that China was the  for 2024. I was wrong (or perhaps early. Which is the same thing). It started off promisingly, but the main Chinese market \u2014 the CSI 300 \u2014 is now among the few global markets that\u2019s actually down on the year. China\u2019s economic performance has underperformed even low expectations this year, and investor hopes that the government or central bank would \u201cdo something\u201d have thus far been persistently wide of the mark.On the latter front at least though, it appears the authorities are done waiting. China has now unleashed its monetary \u201cbazooka.\u201d A full list of the acronyms involved would be painful for me to write and for you to read. So I\u2019ll .It\u2019s easier to quote the Bloomberg Economics team, who described the Chinese central bank (the People\u2019s Bank of China, or PBOC) stimulus package as \u201ceye-popping,\u201d being both larger and earlier than expected. \u201cThis will be a day to remember for China\u2019s monetary policy,\u201d according to Bloomberg\u2019s chief Asia economist, Chang Shu.You\u2019ve got cuts to key interest rates, including mortgage rates. You\u2019ve got cuts to the amount of money that Chinese banks have to keep in reserve (so they can lend more), plus a bit of forward guidance to the effect that \u201cmore cuts are coming.\u201dThere\u2019s also support for the stock market specifically, with the PBOC backing Chinese banks to prop up the equity market, and talk of a \u201cstabilization fund.\u201d The PBOC is also expanding its support for local governments to buy up unsold houses, and cutting deposit requirements on buying second homes.In all, by Chinese standards, it\u2019s a big monetary policy loosening, and it\u2019s all being done at once. As the economics team put it, \u201cthe simultaneous changes in such a broad array of PBOC policy levers is unprecedented.\u201d This is the sort of thing they did when 2008 hit, for example. So it\u2019s no wonder that stocks liked it, at least in the short term.  It\u2019s Big. But Is It Enough?The obvious question is: will this help to turn the leviathan around? There\u2019s plenty of scepticism. This may be a big move, but China\u2019s fundamental problem is that it\u2019s in a balance sheet recession, of the sort that dogged Japan for literally decades.It\u2019s been dragged down by a burst housing bubble. This is absolutely the worst sort of economic problem to deal with, because a property bubble seeps into every corner of the economy.Worse still, unlike a technology bubble, a housing bubble doesn\u2019t give you anything useful, like a global cable network or a load of data centres (I\u2019m jumping the gun here on the latter but \u2013 you know, come on).Instead you just get a load of stranded assets that tie their unlucky owners to one location. Not only that, but a collapsed housing bubble cripples consumer balance sheets, so consumers can\u2019t spend, and also cripples bank balance sheets, so banks can\u2019t lend. If you kill off both of those sources of growth \u2013 well, you\u2019re not left with a lot.On reflection, economists and central banks really should spend a lot more time thinking about housing bubbles specifically, and how to avoid them.  Anyway, all of that aside \u2013 what are the investment implications for the likes of you and I, if indeed there are any?  How to Play a Chinese RecoveryTo be very clear,  about investing directly in China have not gone away. I don\u2019t like any investment where there\u2019s a reasonable, if low probability case, of your investment going to zero because the people in charge are no longer willing to respect your property rights.So just because the market is cheap, and there are at least glimmers of a catalyst to turn things around, doesn\u2019t mean I\u2019d be happy to invest there.That said, there\u2019s no doubt that the market is cheap. Charles Gave over at Gavekal, who has been banging the drum on Chinese stocks for a while, even suggests taking some profits on gold (which he has also been a fan of) and putting the money into Chinese shares \u2013 one ounce of gold will buy you more than twice as many Chinese equities as it did 10 years ago.So for those willing to take a shot on the time now being right for the Chinese stock market, I can see why you might be tempted. But for more cautious folk like me, there are a great many ways out there to invest indirectly in China, should you believe a turnaround is on the cards.I don\u2019t pay a lot of attention to the luxury goods sector, but one of the reasons it\u2019s been in trouble recently is because the Chinese consumer is an important customer and they\u2019ve been missing in action.Maybe there are some opportunities there \u2013 perhaps particularly so in France, which is also being rejected by investors because of its domestic problems? Over on Bloomberg Opinion, Andrea Felsted .There might be a similar story here for Germany\u2019s woe-stricken economy and its most China-sensitive manufacturing sectors. And in the UK\u2019s own FTSE 100, mining stocks already rather like the idea of a Chinese stimulus. I\u2019ll have to leave you to do your own specific research, but they\u2019re all ideas that may well be worth further investigation.There are some other issues that could arise from a genuine Chinese comeback. China has been acting as a deflationary economic force during its slump. If China wakes up again, and has a corresponding impact on global economic activity and global commodity prices, it\u2019s hard to see how that\u2019s not inflationary. But that\u2019s a topic for another day.  Send any feedback, opinions or questions to  and I\u2019ll print the best. If you were forwarded this email by a friend or colleague, .Looking at wider markets \u2014 the FTSE 100 is up 0.2% at around 8,280. The FTSE 250 is down 0.2% at 20,810. Gold is down 0.1% at $2,625 an ounce, and oil (as measured by Brent crude) is up about 2.2% to $75.50 a barrel. Bitcoin is up 0.3% at $63,500 per coin, while Ethereum is down 0.8% at $2,640. The pound is up 0.3% against the US dollar at $1.338, and is flat against the euro at \u20ac1.20.  Follow      for up-to-the-minute news and analysis that move markets.  If you haven\u2019t yet subscribed to the Merryn Talks Money podcast, I highly recommend you do so. ; fellow Android users, you could go with , or just the podcast app of your choice. The main stories to watch out for on Wednesday include:  We\u2019re in a world where politics and political interventions matter far more to markets than they did in the pre-2008 era of consensus, globalisation, and voter apathy. So be sure to read my colleague Allegra Stratton\u2019s daily newsletter, , to keep up.   And if you want up-to-the-minute news commentary with the odd joke flung in, follow me on .<\/pre>\n
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