{"id":1445,"date":"2024-09-23T23:26:56","date_gmt":"2024-09-23T15:26:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=1445"},"modified":"2024-09-23T23:26:56","modified_gmt":"2024-09-23T15:26:56","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e8%b4%b8%e6%98%93%e5%85%b3%e7%b3%bb%e6%ad%a3%e5%b8%b8%e4%b8%8e%e5%90%a6%e6%82%ac%e8%80%8c%e6%9c%aa%e5%86%b3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=1445","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u6b63\u5e38\u4e0e\u5426\u60ac\u800c\u672a\u51b3"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u6839\u636e\u5f7c\u5f97\u68ee\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08Peterson Institute for International Economics\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u53d6\u6d88\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c38\u4e45\u6b63\u5e38\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u4e3e\u52a8\u4f1a\u5bf9\u519c\u4e1a\u3001\u91c7\u77ff\u4ee5\u53ca\u8010\u7528\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4ea7\u751f\u6700\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5931\u4e1a\u5de5\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u670d\u52a1\u4e1a\u5438\u6536\uff0c\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u6574\u4e2a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5b9e\u9645\u5de5\u8d44\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u201c\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5e9f\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684PNTR\u72b6\u6001\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u5728\u57fa\u51c6\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u96be\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u6062\u590d\u201d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5982\u662f\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n

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2023\u5e74\uff0c\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u7ade\u4e89\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5728\u5176\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u5728\u6536\u5230\u884c\u4e1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5bf9\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e25\u5389\u63d0\u6848\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>Supply Chain Latest: China\u2019s Normal Trade Relations Hang in the Balance<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-23
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

Given the state of US-China relations at this point, it\u2019s surprising that Congress hasn\u2019t revoked the country\u2019s permanent normal trade-relations status, formerly known as \u201cmost favored nation.\u201dIt\u2019s hard to find anyone on Capitol Hill willing to publicly defend that 24-year-old deal, and its staying power is even more mind-bending when reading through accounts of the agreement from that time: President Bill Clinton called it a \u201cgood day for America\u201d when the House of Representatives approved his administration\u2019s agreement with China, and said \u201c10 years from now we will look back on this day and be glad we did this.\u201dNearly a quarter century later the results are in. While no one is particularly happy with the deal, there are some groups who say a full repeal would do harm to the US economy. According to a  by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, agriculture, mining and durable manufacturing would be hardest hit initially.\u201cOver time, these unemployed workers would be absorbed into the services sector, through a fall in real wages across the US economy,\u201d the report says. Overall, revoking China\u2019s PNTR status would result in \u201ca short-term decline in US GDP relative to baseline from which the economy never fully recovers.\u201dInflation would also spike as a result of repealing the status, by 0.2% if additional tariffs are imposed and 0.4% if China retaliates, according to the report. That\u2019s not an attractive prospect for either presidential candidate vowing to take on inflation \u2014 and just imagine what policymakers at the Federal Reserve might think.The one aspect of PNTR repeal that does seem likely, especially given the sentiment toward China on Capitol Hill, is a return to where US-China relations were before the year 2000. For the two decades between 1980 and the dawn of the new millennium, the US granted China normal trade relations on an annual basis. It just wasn\u2019t \u201cpermanent.\u201dThe House Committee on Competition with China recommended a similar move in their 2023 report after receiving  from industry groups on a harsher proposal.Once a a measure is signed into law it\u2019s very difficult to repeal, which is one of the reasons lobbyists spend most of their time trying to prevent legislation from getting passed.A complete repeal of China\u2019s permanent normal trade-relations status is unlikely, but that\u2019s what the 2024 GOP platform calls for, and it could happen if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House.If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, a full repeal isn\u2019t off the table, but Congress may find that returning to the pre-2000 status quo might be just as attractive a proposition, though not easy to pull off.\u2014 in WashingtonRead More:The US economy is facing a jolt that threatens the kind of  and consumer discontent rife during the pandemic \u2014 and possibly puts your daily dose of bananas at risk. Some 45,000 dockworkers at every major eastern and Gulf coastport are threatening to strike Oct. 1. With talks at a stalemate since June, industry officials now believe a strike is inevitable, and  and  have started sending out customer advisories and making contingency plans. The shock looms just as US policymakers shift focus from curbing inflation to shoring up thejob market \u2014 and just weeks before a knife-edged .       Don\u2019t keep it to yourself.     Colleagues and friends can . We also publish the , a briefing on the latest in global economics.    For even more: Follow  on Twitter and  for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and gain expert analysis from exclusive subscriber-only newsletters.      How are we doing?     We want to hear what you think about this newsletter. .  <\/pre>\n
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