{"id":1439,"date":"2024-09-23T22:14:54","date_gmt":"2024-09-23T14:14:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kafeizha.com\/?p=1439"},"modified":"2024-09-23T22:14:54","modified_gmt":"2024-09-23T14:14:54","slug":"%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6%e5%bb%ba%e8%ae%ae%ef%bc%9a%e5%8a%a0%e9%80%9f%e6%a3%9a%e6%88%b7%e6%94%b9%e9%80%a0%ef%bc%8c%e5%8a%a9%e5%8a%9b%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%a2%9e%e9%95%bf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.tomjun.com\/?p=1439","title":{"rendered":"\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5efa\u8bae\uff1a\u52a0\u901f\u68da\u6237\u6539\u9020\uff0c\u52a9\u529b\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u65b0\u95fb\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<\/b>www.bloomberg.com
\u539f\u6587\u5730\u5740\uff1a<\/b>China Must Ramp Up Housing Rescue to Propel Growth, Economists Say<\/a>
\u65b0\u95fb\u65e5\u671f\uff1a<\/b>2024-09-22
\u539f\u6587\u6458\u8981\uff1a<\/b><\/font><\/p>\n

China\u2019s housing rescue package offers the best path for putting the country on track to expand around 5%, in the view of most economists, assuming it\u2019s deployed to maximum effect in the face of a real estate crisis expected to last as long as five more years.Among the policy options considered by 15 analysts in a Bloomberg survey, a more forceful implementation of the government-led plan was the top choice of a majority of respondents. The poll followed the  of data for August that deepened doubts over whether the economy  Beijing\u2019s annual growth goal.\u201cA complete change in mindset is required to break the deflationary spiral,\u201d said , chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. \u201cA massive easing is needed to avoid a contractionary nominal GDP.\u201dThe years-long real estate slump that\u2019s wiped out an estimated $18 trillion in wealth from households has been the single biggest challenge faced by the Chinese economy. It\u2019s cost millions of jobs, ravaged consumer confidence and brought down demand for products like .Yet four months after China  its most far-reaching attempt to revive the property market,  has been slow on plans that include a program to provide 300 billion yuan ($42.5 billion) of central bank funding to help government-backed firms buy unsold homes from developers. Unemployment has worsened in the meantime, with the youth jobless rate rising for the second straight month in August to its  level this year.Designed to reduce the  glut, the package of measures is far short of the 1 trillion to 5 trillion yuan that some analysts said was needed to deliver a more decisive fix. And given the unattractive economics of the plan for local authorities, only 29 cities are heeding the call to help absorb an excess of housing, a fraction of more than 200 urged to participate by the central government. China has dismissed as risky and overly expensive a proposal \u2014 with a price tag of  \u2014 made by the International Monetary Fund to use central government funds to complete unfinished housing on a large scale. Authorities have been unwilling to extend more support to the housing sector, in part, because of Beijing\u2019s resolve to shift the economy\u2019s growth driver away from property to technology and manufacturing. The government has urged banks to lend to developers and stalled housing projects, while stopping short of providing direct funding. Fiscal policy has been a  on economic growth this year \u2014 a broad measure of government spending fell an annual 2.9% in the first eight months of 2024, accelerating from a 2% drop in the seven months through July, according to the latest government data. A plunge in revenue from land sales has been a particular drain on budgets, with the earnings slumping a record 41.8% in the January-August period.Without a stimulus blitz, the Chinese economy is expected to expand 4.8% this year in real terms, according to the median forecast of economists in the survey, falling roughly at the lower end of the government\u2019s target range. But nominal growth, which factors in the impact of declining prices, will likely come far lower at 4.25%, they estimate.Measures other than housing support will likely prove less effective in giving the economy a push, the survey showed. Four of the economists favor encouraging local governments to use their bond quotas, two voted for rate cuts, and one chose a budget revision to unleash more public spending.Meanwhile, China\u2019s property gloom is projected to last another two to five years by eight economists in the survey.Chinese authorities are considering various ways to shore up the real estate market. That includes  local governments buy unsold homes with funds raised from special bond issuance,  rates on outstanding mortgages, and  some of the remaining home purchase restrictions for consumers.Local officials have been cautious because property prices are expected to slide further despite previous plunges, while estimated returns from turning inventory into affordable rental housing are below the cost of funding.In a sign the slow roll-out of the rescue plan has failed to put a floor under the downturn, new-home prices in China  0.73% last month from July, the biggest decline since 2014. Property investment continued to decrease at a double-digit rate, while consumption weakened more than expected and a deceleration in production notched its longest slowing streak since 2021.\u201cPolicymakers have so far chosen to stay the course and roll out steady drips of policy support.\u201d said , an economist with Maybank Investment Banking Group. \u201cThe time has come for a forceful, front-loaded fiscal boost.\u201d<\/pre>\n
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